Lincoln and Specter and Critz, Oh My!
9:16 AM
by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics.
Democrat incumbents Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter head into today’s primary election as wounded Washington veterans in a year where that badge is worn with little honor. In tandem with their election comes a hotly contested special election in Pennsylvania’ 12th District where King of Pork Jack Murtha reigned supreme for decades.
All signs point to cliffhanger results in the three races. Today's RCP Poll results place Republican Tim Burns slightly ahead of Democrat insider and long-time Murtha aide Mark Critz. Hurting Critz, President Obama has disapproval ratings at 55% in the district according to polling agency PPP. Burns has run as a Washington outsider and businessman with a history of job creation, an ability to meet a payroll, and other appealing facets in the heavily Reagan-Democrat district. With Scott Brown recently campaigning for Burns, the DCCC knows how strong the symbolism of a loss would be. Frantic emails have been coming several times a day for the last few weeks.
Also in Pennsylvania, turncoat Democrat Arlen Specter finds himself in a particularly bitter and heated primary challenge from the Left in Representative Joe Sestak, whose late and meteoric rise in the polls mimics that of the president during several 2008 primaries against Hillary Clinton. Surely this turn of events has caught Specter by surprise, given that several DNC insiders like Ed Rendell assured Specter that if he switched parties he would avoid a primary challenge altogether. Fearing association with yet another loss by one of his favored candidates (Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine, etc...), Obama's White House has already distanced itself from the Specter campaign.
In Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln may not be able to reach the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff election against challenger Bill Halter, who has the support of labor and progressives. Halter has trailed Lincoln by around 10 points, but some analysts say that unrest among voters might push a second ballot in Halter's direction. If Lincoln does survive the primary, she may ironically be helped by Halter's challenge. His attacks from the Left have distanced Lincoln from the liberal entities that tend to be a nuise around the neck of Democrats running for statewide election. Those attacks may also have taken the attention away from Lincoln's near-perfect partyline voting record under President Obama. Both candidates run well behind the likely Republican challenger in current polls.
But the news isn't just bad for Democrats. In Kentucky, Republican Trey Grayson has the backing of party establishment to replace outgoing Senator Jim Bunning. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell recently stepped into the race by throwing an endorsement to Grayson, but Tea Party groups prefer challenger Rand Paul by large margins. Paul has surged ahead to a comfortable margin against Grayson, though most analysts predict that Paul would be a weaker general election candidate.
If incumbents and establishment candidates get edged out in the polls today, will they be seen as a canary in the coal mine for lifetime politicians in DC? News would be particularly scary for Democratic incumbents, as Republicans are currently favored on the Generic Ballot according to three out of four published polls this month. They also have made significant gains in 8 out of 10 hot November races. If Republicans can prove that theirs is the party of ideas and Democrats the party of status quo, 2010 could well be the peer of 1994.
Stay glued to your televisions tonight.
For videos and archives visit Drawnlines Politics Online AND check us out on FACEBOOK
Democrat incumbents Blanche Lincoln and Arlen Specter head into today’s primary election as wounded Washington veterans in a year where that badge is worn with little honor. In tandem with their election comes a hotly contested special election in Pennsylvania’ 12th District where King of Pork Jack Murtha reigned supreme for decades.
All signs point to cliffhanger results in the three races. Today's RCP Poll results place Republican Tim Burns slightly ahead of Democrat insider and long-time Murtha aide Mark Critz. Hurting Critz, President Obama has disapproval ratings at 55% in the district according to polling agency PPP. Burns has run as a Washington outsider and businessman with a history of job creation, an ability to meet a payroll, and other appealing facets in the heavily Reagan-Democrat district. With Scott Brown recently campaigning for Burns, the DCCC knows how strong the symbolism of a loss would be. Frantic emails have been coming several times a day for the last few weeks.
Also in Pennsylvania, turncoat Democrat Arlen Specter finds himself in a particularly bitter and heated primary challenge from the Left in Representative Joe Sestak, whose late and meteoric rise in the polls mimics that of the president during several 2008 primaries against Hillary Clinton. Surely this turn of events has caught Specter by surprise, given that several DNC insiders like Ed Rendell assured Specter that if he switched parties he would avoid a primary challenge altogether. Fearing association with yet another loss by one of his favored candidates (Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine, etc...), Obama's White House has already distanced itself from the Specter campaign.
In Arkansas, Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln may not be able to reach the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff election against challenger Bill Halter, who has the support of labor and progressives. Halter has trailed Lincoln by around 10 points, but some analysts say that unrest among voters might push a second ballot in Halter's direction. If Lincoln does survive the primary, she may ironically be helped by Halter's challenge. His attacks from the Left have distanced Lincoln from the liberal entities that tend to be a nuise around the neck of Democrats running for statewide election. Those attacks may also have taken the attention away from Lincoln's near-perfect partyline voting record under President Obama. Both candidates run well behind the likely Republican challenger in current polls.
But the news isn't just bad for Democrats. In Kentucky, Republican Trey Grayson has the backing of party establishment to replace outgoing Senator Jim Bunning. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell recently stepped into the race by throwing an endorsement to Grayson, but Tea Party groups prefer challenger Rand Paul by large margins. Paul has surged ahead to a comfortable margin against Grayson, though most analysts predict that Paul would be a weaker general election candidate.
If incumbents and establishment candidates get edged out in the polls today, will they be seen as a canary in the coal mine for lifetime politicians in DC? News would be particularly scary for Democratic incumbents, as Republicans are currently favored on the Generic Ballot according to three out of four published polls this month. They also have made significant gains in 8 out of 10 hot November races. If Republicans can prove that theirs is the party of ideas and Democrats the party of status quo, 2010 could well be the peer of 1994.
Stay glued to your televisions tonight.
For videos and archives visit Drawnlines Politics Online AND check us out on FACEBOOK
Posted by Nick Stone
on 9:16 AM.
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