Obama's 2012 Chances
Nation, POTUS 12:30 AM
by Nick Stone:
Daily headlines spell either inevitable doom or smooth sailing for President Obama's re-election. To clear the confusion, we decided to assess Obama's campaign and found that logic and history show an uphill climb to a second term.
False start. Let's look back to where we began in 2008. Obama was at the peak of his prestige at the historic moment of his election. But while the world clamored for Obama, only 53 percent of Americans pulled the lever and voted for him.
So we start with 53%. Does anyone really believe Obama hasn't lost a mere four percent of his support, putting him below the halfway mark? Of course not. Indeed according to Real Clear Politics averages, Obama has been treading below the 50% mark since November 2009, two full years ago. Modern presidents want to see their approval ratings well north of 50% a year out from Election Day to avoid disaster.
Nowhere to run. Polls show erosion of Obama's progressive base, but he can't run much further Left to appease them. Obama can't count on winning 52% of Independents (Democrat presidential candidates rarely win this group) or picking off 20% of conservatives like 2008, and he can't run Right to get them back. So the president is in precarious posture heading into the election.
Bush-whacked. The electoral map looks much worse for Obama than it did four years ago. Census figures show electoral votes leaving reliably blue states for red states, so even if he won on exactly the same turf, the president would have 6 fewer electoral votes than in '08. But he won't win many of those states. The president faces serious headwind in the 2004 Bush states he previously picked off. Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina will most certainly swing back into the GOP column and Ohio and Florida are likely to follow suit. Take away the one elector Obama won from Nebraska and Obama's electoral math is down to 272.
The GOP is committed to strong campaigns in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which together put 46 electors in play. That brings Obama down to 226 firm EV's. If Mitt Romney emerges as the GOP nominee, New Hampshire's 4 EV's go almost immediately into the Republican column. That's only 222 firm EV's for the president. Looking west, Republicans will certainly put Colorado and Nevada (both Bush states) back into play next year, forcing the President's count down even further to 207. Obama is unlikely to win any states he hasn't previously won, though the campaign has deluded itself into thinking that Georgia and Arizona are in play. We say No Way to that assertion.
An objective analysis of the Electoral Map puts Obama at 207, "Republican" at 219 and 112 EV's in play.
Bad News Barry. Economists say there is a looming chance of a second recession. The Supreme Court is likely to overturn Obamacare in the middle of campaign season. Administration scandals, scandals and more scandals keep surfacing. Americans aren't any better off economically than they were four years ago. If the Carter-like onslaught of bad news keeps piling up, voters are increasingly likely to take a chance on a new president.
History. The record isn't kind to incumbent Dems. Only FDR and Bill Clinton have been re-elected in modern history. The others have been killed, lost their election bids or chosen not to run at all. Yes, it's really that bad.
Divide and Conquer. Ironically, voter frustration may be the Ace up Obama's sleeve. Perhaps the only chance Obama has to secure victory in 2012 is to divide the field into a three-way race. Like Perot's candidacy allowed Bill Clinton to win with only 43% of the vote in 1992 and 49% in 1996, Obama could conceivably carry some 40+ percent of the vote and find his way to the magical 270 if Americans become so unimpressed by the major parties that many support a third candidate. Without a tiebreaker, the metrics don't look great for Obama.
Daily headlines spell either inevitable doom or smooth sailing for President Obama's re-election. To clear the confusion, we decided to assess Obama's campaign and found that logic and history show an uphill climb to a second term.
False start. Let's look back to where we began in 2008. Obama was at the peak of his prestige at the historic moment of his election. But while the world clamored for Obama, only 53 percent of Americans pulled the lever and voted for him.
So we start with 53%. Does anyone really believe Obama hasn't lost a mere four percent of his support, putting him below the halfway mark? Of course not. Indeed according to Real Clear Politics averages, Obama has been treading below the 50% mark since November 2009, two full years ago. Modern presidents want to see their approval ratings well north of 50% a year out from Election Day to avoid disaster.
Nowhere to run. Polls show erosion of Obama's progressive base, but he can't run much further Left to appease them. Obama can't count on winning 52% of Independents (Democrat presidential candidates rarely win this group) or picking off 20% of conservatives like 2008, and he can't run Right to get them back. So the president is in precarious posture heading into the election.
Bush-whacked. The electoral map looks much worse for Obama than it did four years ago. Census figures show electoral votes leaving reliably blue states for red states, so even if he won on exactly the same turf, the president would have 6 fewer electoral votes than in '08. But he won't win many of those states. The president faces serious headwind in the 2004 Bush states he previously picked off. Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina will most certainly swing back into the GOP column and Ohio and Florida are likely to follow suit. Take away the one elector Obama won from Nebraska and Obama's electoral math is down to 272.
The GOP is committed to strong campaigns in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which together put 46 electors in play. That brings Obama down to 226 firm EV's. If Mitt Romney emerges as the GOP nominee, New Hampshire's 4 EV's go almost immediately into the Republican column. That's only 222 firm EV's for the president. Looking west, Republicans will certainly put Colorado and Nevada (both Bush states) back into play next year, forcing the President's count down even further to 207. Obama is unlikely to win any states he hasn't previously won, though the campaign has deluded itself into thinking that Georgia and Arizona are in play. We say No Way to that assertion.
An objective analysis of the Electoral Map puts Obama at 207, "Republican" at 219 and 112 EV's in play.
History. The record isn't kind to incumbent Dems. Only FDR and Bill Clinton have been re-elected in modern history. The others have been killed, lost their election bids or chosen not to run at all. Yes, it's really that bad.
Divide and Conquer. Ironically, voter frustration may be the Ace up Obama's sleeve. Perhaps the only chance Obama has to secure victory in 2012 is to divide the field into a three-way race. Like Perot's candidacy allowed Bill Clinton to win with only 43% of the vote in 1992 and 49% in 1996, Obama could conceivably carry some 40+ percent of the vote and find his way to the magical 270 if Americans become so unimpressed by the major parties that many support a third candidate. Without a tiebreaker, the metrics don't look great for Obama.
Posted by Nick Stone
on 12:30 AM.
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