Into the Crystal Ball (part 2)
mccain, obama 11:36 PM
One Week Out.
Since publishing part 1 of this series after the conclusion of both party conventions, a lot has happened. Since that post, gas prices have plummeted. Since that post, the Dow has dropped over 2000 points. Since that post, a handfull of banks have failed. Since that post, the housing crisis has deepened. More people are in foreclosure than ever before.
People have a tendency to vote based on how they feel in the wallet. When things take a nosedive in an election cycle, you usually see a massive shift towards whichever party is not perceived to be in control. Think Carter/Reagan in 1980. Think Bush/Clinton in 1992.
So, things aren't looking nearly as good for my boy John McCain as they were only a few short weeks ago. That being said, it is remarkable that he's not in a double digit deficit on average. Today's RCP shows a 7.2 percent race, down from an 8 point race a few days ago. Still, Democratic and Republican strategists alike all agree that the numbers are inflated and a general consensus suggests a 3 to 5 point race overall. This, keep in mind, is in 'the year of the Dems'. The political waters couldn't be better for the Democratic party and AGAIN I stress to you that Barack Obama is underperforming his brand name. A generic ballot Dem/Republican race without any names on the ballot still leads the Democrat to a safe 10.2 percent victory. Obama has underperformed without fail all season.
Still, under current conditions and without a game changer, Barack Obama looks to squeek out a victory on election day. Here comes the Drawnlines Blog official predictions, one week out from election day:
Battlegrounds:
Ohio: Obama continues to poll at a 4 point lead, but I have faith in GOP get-out-the-vote organization there as well as a high number of undecided voters breaking for McCain. Also, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsed McCain a few days ago and he should have a strong showing across southern Ohio as well as in the Columbus suburbs. It'll be close, but I think he'll squeek through.
Florida: Obama's RCP count - massive. Early voting lines - around the building. Still the numbers are fairly even, with the Democrats just pulling ahead today in early voting if you combine returning absentee ballots in combination with in-person early voters. I put my absentee ballot in the mail today, and I'm a registered Democrat voting for McCain, so the estimations will show me as a vote returned for Obama until my ballot is actually opened and counted. One thing to always consider in Florida is that the panhandle - a Republican stronghold - has a massive amount of precincts in Central Time, and those precincts are open an entire hour longer than the penninsular part of the state. So, if Obama isn't ahead by several thousand votes by closing time on the East Coast, it's still in play. If McCain is ahead at all by that time, it's definitely over. After everything is counted, I honestly believe McCain will nose out Obama.
Virginia: Well... yikes. Virginia has trended extremely blue in the past few weeks, and I'm surprised that it's tipped in Obama's favor as much as it has. Turnout in Northern Virginia for Obama should be massive, and 2006 reminds us that those late-returning precincts could easily deliver the state home and into the Dems column.
Michigan: The wheels really flew off that wagon, didn't they? But you gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em. There's no way McCain was going to overcome the economic problems facing that state in the face of our latest economic downturn. The shift has been overwhelmingly toward Obama, and no amount of money or time was going to fix it.
Missouri: Gotta have faith. Obama narrowly nosed out Clinton 49% to 48% by driving up massive margins of victory in St Louis and Kansas City, but losing almost everywhere else. Can he pull off the same in the general election? Let's hope not. This true bellweather state should theoretically come home for McCain - yes, still.
North Carolina: What a surprise shift! If the Republicans lose North Carolina, they don't deserve the white house. This is a red state among red states. The metrics should be in McCain's favor big time. Yet, Obama has managed to climb ahead of him in recent weeks - though by extremely narrow margins. Will undecided voters bring home this red state? Most likely. I'm counting on it.
Colorado and New Mexico are off the table now. The economic trends should deliver Obama a clear victory.
Nevada: I'm still keeping my fingers crossed here, because this is considered a red state, but there's no doubt about it - hispanics are moving over to Obama at alarming rates. It's gonna be close!
Finally, Pennsylvania: McCain is pushing hard in this state, and he honestly thinks he's got a winning strategy to shift this oft-desired blue state into the Republican column. Bush wasn't able to do it in 2000 or in 2004, despite a great ground game and spending plenty of money and time there. McCain thinks he can outperform Bush in the Philly suburbs full of moderate Republicans and in Pittsburgh, but I don't see how he can run up nearly the margins Bush did in the so-called "T" of central and northern PA. Then again, it's widely held that Obama won't come close to Kerry's 412,000 vote margin of victory in Philadelphia County, so we might see a fair fight after all. Will Pennsylvanians remember the awful treatment they got from Obama in April? I'm guessing not, and not counting on their electoral votes at the end of the day.
-------
Final: So, after all the votes come in and are counted and recounted, we get a much different outcome if the race were held tomorrow rather than after the conventions. After careful consideration and my best shot at an objective analysis, here it is:
Obama/Biden: 286
McCain/Palin: 252
Unless we see a huge shift in the next week, Obama can keep measuring the curtains in the Oval Office. He'll be moving in soon. Yikes!
Since publishing part 1 of this series after the conclusion of both party conventions, a lot has happened. Since that post, gas prices have plummeted. Since that post, the Dow has dropped over 2000 points. Since that post, a handfull of banks have failed. Since that post, the housing crisis has deepened. More people are in foreclosure than ever before.
People have a tendency to vote based on how they feel in the wallet. When things take a nosedive in an election cycle, you usually see a massive shift towards whichever party is not perceived to be in control. Think Carter/Reagan in 1980. Think Bush/Clinton in 1992.
So, things aren't looking nearly as good for my boy John McCain as they were only a few short weeks ago. That being said, it is remarkable that he's not in a double digit deficit on average. Today's RCP shows a 7.2 percent race, down from an 8 point race a few days ago. Still, Democratic and Republican strategists alike all agree that the numbers are inflated and a general consensus suggests a 3 to 5 point race overall. This, keep in mind, is in 'the year of the Dems'. The political waters couldn't be better for the Democratic party and AGAIN I stress to you that Barack Obama is underperforming his brand name. A generic ballot Dem/Republican race without any names on the ballot still leads the Democrat to a safe 10.2 percent victory. Obama has underperformed without fail all season.
Still, under current conditions and without a game changer, Barack Obama looks to squeek out a victory on election day. Here comes the Drawnlines Blog official predictions, one week out from election day:
Battlegrounds:Ohio: Obama continues to poll at a 4 point lead, but I have faith in GOP get-out-the-vote organization there as well as a high number of undecided voters breaking for McCain. Also, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsed McCain a few days ago and he should have a strong showing across southern Ohio as well as in the Columbus suburbs. It'll be close, but I think he'll squeek through.
Florida: Obama's RCP count - massive. Early voting lines - around the building. Still the numbers are fairly even, with the Democrats just pulling ahead today in early voting if you combine returning absentee ballots in combination with in-person early voters. I put my absentee ballot in the mail today, and I'm a registered Democrat voting for McCain, so the estimations will show me as a vote returned for Obama until my ballot is actually opened and counted. One thing to always consider in Florida is that the panhandle - a Republican stronghold - has a massive amount of precincts in Central Time, and those precincts are open an entire hour longer than the penninsular part of the state. So, if Obama isn't ahead by several thousand votes by closing time on the East Coast, it's still in play. If McCain is ahead at all by that time, it's definitely over. After everything is counted, I honestly believe McCain will nose out Obama.
Virginia: Well... yikes. Virginia has trended extremely blue in the past few weeks, and I'm surprised that it's tipped in Obama's favor as much as it has. Turnout in Northern Virginia for Obama should be massive, and 2006 reminds us that those late-returning precincts could easily deliver the state home and into the Dems column.
Michigan: The wheels really flew off that wagon, didn't they? But you gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em. There's no way McCain was going to overcome the economic problems facing that state in the face of our latest economic downturn. The shift has been overwhelmingly toward Obama, and no amount of money or time was going to fix it.
Missouri: Gotta have faith. Obama narrowly nosed out Clinton 49% to 48% by driving up massive margins of victory in St Louis and Kansas City, but losing almost everywhere else. Can he pull off the same in the general election? Let's hope not. This true bellweather state should theoretically come home for McCain - yes, still.
North Carolina: What a surprise shift! If the Republicans lose North Carolina, they don't deserve the white house. This is a red state among red states. The metrics should be in McCain's favor big time. Yet, Obama has managed to climb ahead of him in recent weeks - though by extremely narrow margins. Will undecided voters bring home this red state? Most likely. I'm counting on it.
Colorado and New Mexico are off the table now. The economic trends should deliver Obama a clear victory.
Nevada: I'm still keeping my fingers crossed here, because this is considered a red state, but there's no doubt about it - hispanics are moving over to Obama at alarming rates. It's gonna be close!
Finally, Pennsylvania: McCain is pushing hard in this state, and he honestly thinks he's got a winning strategy to shift this oft-desired blue state into the Republican column. Bush wasn't able to do it in 2000 or in 2004, despite a great ground game and spending plenty of money and time there. McCain thinks he can outperform Bush in the Philly suburbs full of moderate Republicans and in Pittsburgh, but I don't see how he can run up nearly the margins Bush did in the so-called "T" of central and northern PA. Then again, it's widely held that Obama won't come close to Kerry's 412,000 vote margin of victory in Philadelphia County, so we might see a fair fight after all. Will Pennsylvanians remember the awful treatment they got from Obama in April? I'm guessing not, and not counting on their electoral votes at the end of the day.
-------
Final: So, after all the votes come in and are counted and recounted, we get a much different outcome if the race were held tomorrow rather than after the conventions. After careful consideration and my best shot at an objective analysis, here it is:
Obama/Biden: 286
McCain/Palin: 252
Unless we see a huge shift in the next week, Obama can keep measuring the curtains in the Oval Office. He'll be moving in soon. Yikes!
Posted by Nick Stone
on 11:36 PM.
Filed under
Posts
Hillary sent ME to tell you to keep the seat warm for her. McPalin '08, Clinton'12:~)
Nick, I urge you, have you actually stopped and thought about the temperament and ability to lead of these two guys?
You might not like some of what Obama has done in the past, but he has successfully managed a campaign that by all accounts has had some amazing leadership, an ability to stay on message and most of all, Obama has shown to be cool headed and logical in the face of a crisis.
McCain, on the other hand, has been anything but that. His campaign is breaking at the seams. Everyday more and more people from within the campaign are coming forward to say how terribly managed it has been.
On top of that, McCains "actions" that you speak so fondly of have been all but impressive. The guy was a rogue soldier who crashed his plane multiple times. Even recently, in the face of the financial crisis, he managed to somehow blunder his response with an emergency trip back to Washington (well it was an emergency right after an interview with Katie Couric and meeting with a wealthy British donor and spending the night in NY). Once there, he did nothing but pose for a couple photo ops and craft an ad saying it was him to thank for helping the bail out pass (except, after it started running, it became clear the bail out did not pass that time).
What other actions must McCain be judged on? He picked an inexperienced person who has become a national punch-line to be his running mate. I'm positive you think Bill Maher is "in the tank" but he came pretty close to accurate with this quote on how the Palin picked looked to most people (or at least eventually, when it became known she had no experience in anything other than running her small town, abusing her power and lying about opposing the bridge to nowhere or being a fiscal conservative):
"I think this is pertinent because McCain has been running this campaign based on 'We're at war, it's a dangerous world out there. The democrats don't get that. I John McCain am the only one standing between the blood-thirsty Al Qaedas and you. But if I die, this stewardess can handle it.'"
You can argue the stewardess comment is "sexist" but its close to right. She is inexperienced and if your platform is you are the only one who can save us from a terrorist attack, you better have an understudy waiting, should you be unable to perform.
Look at it from this perspective, imagine the Cuban Missile Crisis today. Do you for one moment believe that if such an event happened under John McCain's watch, we'd still be on earth to talk about it? The man has a legendary temper and it is almost certain we'd all be blown to smithereens within a few hours.
Obama, on the other hand, would be far more likely to think before he acted. Which is how JFK/RFK wound up solving the Cuban Missle Crisis peacefully.
I used to respect John McCain. I thought he was a true "Maverick" who deserved my respect. Except that John McCain is no longer with us. He has become a partisan hack with a touch of senility. Not to mention, the man will say ANYTHING to get elected. He recently railed against Barack Obama (BHO, as you so respectfully call him) for pandering about which baseball team he was rooting for, depending which state he was campaigning in.
This sounds kind of like pathetic pandering, except as usual had a way to out-sleaze Barack Obama...
There is a very famous story, that when McCain was being tortured at the Hanoi Hilton, he was asked to namee the rest of the soldiers in his unit. Rather than giving up the names, John McCain lied and named the starting line of the Green Bay Packers...this story was even documented in a TV movie about McCain's life. It was also recalled faithfully in several books about McCain's life. Except several times during this campaign, McCain has changed the story -- naming the local team of the city he was in. This is either the most vile form of pandering I've ever heard or the beginnings of Alzheimers. Either way, neither make me particularly comfortable to see him in office.
You can go on and on about talk verses action all you want. Except such action is not exactly admirable when it is hot headed and ignorant. I urge you, Nick, please reconsider your vote.
First, let me say that I completely understand the point of the Bill Maher quote, and frankly, I understand where he's coming from.
Secondly, yes I absolutely have actually sat down and thought about the implications of my vote and my posts and my talks with friends and family.
I don't expect anyone to believe this, but when Hillary was out of the race I was sincerely undecided. Yes, I was tilting McCain, but BHO (who I'll refer to as such as much as I please without fear of reprisal so long as anyone else can use JFK/RFK or GW)honestly could have won me over. Frankly, I've said a hundred times that it's painful to me not to get behind the guy that Hillary urges me to. Watching her stump for her live was both amazing and persuasive. I was convinced that she's my hero, but unconvinced to vote for Obama.
We don't need another 'talking president'.
People forget how ineffectual and what an awful president JFK actually was. He is iconic for sure, but when he was assassinated that awful day, he was campaigning in Texas for his reelection because Americans were so tired of the gridlock and nonsense that was happening under his administration that he was in danger of losing Texas. At the time, Democrats NEVER lost Texas.
Jimmy Carter was a speaking president. He is also a great man who deserves to be admired. He had great vision and knew how to use words to motivate people. But he did as much damage to this country in 4 years as GW Bush has done in 8. That's no small feat. It's also not just my opinion. A landslide majority of Americans - including lots and lots of Democrats - ushered in Ronald Reagan to fix the damage caused by an admiral if ill-advised young, speaking president.
That's not 'spin' or right wing hysteria. That's American History.
And so, rest easy at night that I've agonized plenty over this decision and although I'm becoming aware of my impending loss, I'm prepared to wear my battle scars proudly. But I'm just one man with just one vote.
You don't have to apologize for voting for McCain. It amazes me that the sheeple either demonize anti-Obamicans or make them feel guilty. I'm proud to be voting for a patriot. I do not make excuses for America,or think that any president or "potential" president should be deriding us to other leaders and swarming crowds, while overseas. We DO need change, but not the kind of change that BO brings. I believe our founding father's would be rolling over in their graves listening to the lies and rhetoric of "the one" and even moreso, sickened by his most fraudulent and illegally run campaign. Be proud to be voting for country, first.
Ah, and so we have conservative columnist Peggy Noonan supporting Obama. Why are you so stubborn and hateful when it comes to this guy? It's one thing to root for McCain, but instead you are so condescending when you refer to him (BHO) and you make it as if his presidency will be the end of the world.
I will never get it, Nicholas.
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The case for Barack Obama, in broad strokes:
He has within him the possibility to change the direction and tone of American foreign policy, which need changing; his rise will serve as a practical rebuke to the past five years, which need rebuking; his victory would provide a fresh start in a nation in which a fresh start would come as a national relief. He climbed steep stairs, born off the continent with no father to guide, a dreamy, abandoning mother, mixed race, no connections. He rose with guts and gifts. He is steady, calm, and, in terms of the execution of his political ascent, still the primary and almost only area in which his executive abilities can be discerned, he shows good judgment in terms of whom to hire and consult, what steps to take and moves to make. We witnessed from him this year something unique in American politics: He took down a political machine without raising his voice.
A great moment: When the press was hitting hard on the pregnancy of Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter, he did not respond with a politically shrewd "I have no comment," or "We shouldn't judge." Instead he said, "My mother had me when she was 18," which shamed the press and others into silence. He showed grace when he didn't have to.
There is something else. On Feb. 5, Super Tuesday, Mr. Obama won the Alabama primary with 56% to Hillary Clinton's 42%. That evening, a friend watched the victory speech on TV in his suburban den. His 10-year-old daughter walked in, saw on the screen "Obama Wins" and "Alabama." She said, "Daddy, we saw a documentary on Martin Luther King Day in school." She said, "That's where they used the hoses." Suddenly my friend saw it new. Birmingham, 1963, and the water hoses used against the civil rights demonstrators. And now look, the black man thanking Alabama for his victory.
This means nothing? This means a great deal.
More Peggy Noonan
Read Peggy Noonan's previous columns.
And click here to order her new book, Patriotic Grace.
John McCain's story is not of rise so much as endurance, not only in Vietnam, which was spectacular enough, but throughout a rough and rugged political career of 26 years. He is passionate, obstreperous, independent, sees existential fables within history. His self-confessed role model for many years was Robert Jordan in Ernest Hemingway's novel of the Spanish Civil War, "For Whom the Bell Tolls." Mr. McCain, in his last memoir: "He was and remains to my mind a hero for the twentieth century . . . an idealistic freedom fighter" who had "a beautiful fatalism" and who sacrificed "for something else, something greater." Actually Jordan fought on the side of the communists and died pointlessly, but never mind. He joined his personality to a great purpose and found meaning in his maverickness. In his campaign, Mr. McCain rarely got down to the meaning of things; he mostly stated stands. But separate and seemingly unconnected stands do not coherence make.
However: It was a night during the Republican Convention in September, and two former U.S. senators, who had served with Mr. McCain for a combined 16 years, were having drinks in a hotel dining room. I told them I collected stories of senators who'd been cursed out by John McCain, and they laughed and told me of times they'd been the target of his wrath on the Senate floor.
The talk turned to presidents they had known, and why they had wanted the job. This one wanted it as the last item on his résumé, that one wanted it out of an inflated sense of personal destiny. Is that why Mr. McCain wants it? "No", said one, reflectively. "He wants to help the country." The other added, with almost an air of wonder, "He wants to make America stronger, he really does." And then they spoke, these two men who'd been bruised by him, of John McCain's honest patriotism.
Those who have historically been sympathetic to the Republican Party or conservatism, and who support Barack Obama -- Colin Powell, William Weld and Charles Fried, among others -- and whose arguments have not passed muster with some muster-passers, go undamned here. Their objections include: The McCain campaign has been inadequate, and some of his major decisions embarrassing. All too true. But conservatives must honor prudence, and ask if the circumstances accompanying an Obama victory will encourage the helpful moderation and nonpartisan spirit these supporters attempt, in their endorsements, to demonstrate.
There is for instance, in the words of Minnesota's Gov. Tim Pawlenty, "the runaway train." The size and dimension of the likely Democratic victory seem clear. A Democratic House with a bigger, more fervent Democratic majority; a Democratic Senate with the same, and possibly with a filibuster-breaking 60 seats; a new and popular Democratic president, elected by a few points or more; a Democratic base whose anger and hunger have built for eight years; Democratic activists and operatives hungry for business and action. What will this mix produce? A runaway train with no one to put on the brakes, to claim a mandate for slowing, no one to cry "Crossing ahead"? Democrats in Congress will move for innovation when much of the country hopes only for stability. Who will tell Congress of that rest of the nation? Mr. Obama will be overwhelmed trying to placate the innovators.
America enjoyed divided government most successfully recently from 1994 to 2000, with Bill Clinton in the White House and Newt Gingrich in effect running Congress. It wasn't so bad. In fact, it yielded a great deal, including sweeping reform of the welfare system, and balanced budgets.
Whoever is elected Tuesday, his freedom in office will be limited. Mr. Obama is out of money and Mr. McCain is out of army, so what might be assumed to be the worst impulses of each -- big spender, big scrapper -- will be circumscribed by reality. In Mr. Obama's case, energy will likely be diverted to other issues. He will raise taxes, of course, but he may also feel forced to bow to a clamorous base with the nonspending items they favor: the rewriting of union law to force greater unionization of smaller shops, for instance, and a return to a "fairness doctrine" that would limit free speech on the air.
And there is this. The past few months as the campaign unfolded, I listened for Mr. Obama to speak thoughtfully about the life issues, including abortion. Our last Democratic president knew what that issue was, and knew by nature how to speak of it. Bill Clinton famously said, over and over, that abortion should be "safe, legal and rare." The "rare" mattered. It set a tone, as presidents do, and made an important concession: You only want a medical practice to be rare when it isn't good. For Mr. Obama, whose mind tends, as intellectuals' minds do, toward the abstract, it all seems so . . . abstract. And cold. And rather suggestive of radical departures. "That's above my pay grade." Friend, that is your pay grade, that's where the presidency lives, in issues like that.
But let's be frank. Something new is happening in America. It is the imminent arrival of a new liberal moment. History happens, it makes its turns, you hold on for dear life. Life moves.
A fitting end for a harem-scarem, rock-'em-sock-'em shakeup of a year -- one of tumbling inevitabilities, torn coalitions, striking new personalities.
Eras end, and begin. "God is in charge of history." And so my beautiful election ends.
Please add your comments to the Opinion Journal forum.
This first decade of the 21st Century has not been very good for America. We have been terrorized at home, humiliated in war, humbled by Asia, surpassed by Europe, invaded by Mexico and laughed at by Canada.
We are also so much sicker and sadder and poorer than we were eight years ago.
The question, on November 4, is this: Are we man enough, as a nation, to admit things are just going to keep getting worse? Can we finally grimace into our national mirror and admit that we need someone to finish the job? Then let's make John McCain, and then Sarah Palin, our president(s). Let's do this right!
Experts say the United States is like a bus full of enraged cows teetering on the edge of a sea cliff, with swarms of bloodthirsty sharks circling the waters below. Tragically, the frightened and confused livestock are unable to tilt the bus over the cliff by themselves.
We can't afford to prolong the misery. We can't afford to elect some pie-in-the-sky character who appeals to our better instincts. We can't afford to put aside ignorance and poverty.
We need to be pushed over that ledge.
John McCain was once a well-regarded senator with a dramatic personal history. He was admired by most Americans, and everyone loved his bawdy stories and how he constantly screamed at other senators and then had to write notes apologizing for his insane behavior. Nobody cared when he abandoned his children and his first wife, after she was crippled. He was a Maverick, after all, and Mavericks love adultery. Mavericks have no morals. They are free, like the wind.
Over his three decades in Washington, John McCain has stuck to his ideals, which are "take everything you can get from lobbyists" and "make your second wife buy mansions and luxury cars for you, because you are a Maverick."
But at least he has spent a very long time in Washington, at cocktail parties. Also, he loves to have wars. Do you love getting into wars and then losing them? John McCain is your man. He dropped bombs on people in a war, against Vietnam, and that was a very big war that America lost! Some say we've never recovered from that debacle.
Lest we mistake McCain's three decades in Washington for a steady temperament and lifetime of experience, John McCain picked some random idiot to be his vice-presidential nominee because she looked good on the teevee, until we heard her voice. So you don't have to worry about McCain having a group of professional advisers to guide his administration or, god forbid, set a sane course should he expire of old age while in office. If Sarah Palin doesn't nuke various U.S. states she's never heard of -- watch out, "New" Mexico! -- she'll surely start nuclear wars with Russia and China.
And then we'll be gone, just a smoldering 3,000-mile-wide wasteland of radioactive skeletons. It's sad, sure, but you can't say we didn't have it coming.
Make a difference. Fight the future. Vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.