As our nation prepares to go to the polls tomorrow in record numbers, I can't help but reflect back on the last year and a half or so and think of all the twists and turns that brought us where we now stand.
I remember even further back to nearly two years ago, to a time before we knew who would even be running for president on either side of the proverbial aisle. Many of my friends lobbied me to support Hillary Clinton. Others tried their best to shove me in the direction of John Edwards. I even had a few urgent pleas to get behind Al Gore. Not knowing my true options and not having been introduced to the 2008 reformulation of any of the above or others, I was truly an undecided.
It wasn't until sometime in December 2007 that I started to fall in love with Hillary Clinton. In retrospect, I don't think it was only her thoughtful policies, and it certainly wasn't her charisma with voters - no, I think it was her strength under pressure that truly tipped me in Hillary's direction. As I watched her take on the attacks of Republicans early on, I couldn't help but admire her grace and poise as she refused to knuckle under the pressure. Little did I know then how much pressure would be mounted upon her - or how much resolve she truly had.
By her loss in Iowa, I was hooked. By her surprise win in New Hampshire only days later, I was officially a disciple. And by the time Ohio and Texas were ready to go to the polls, I was bloodthirsty. After 11 straight disappointing losses, I'd had it. The line in the sand had to be drawn. We had to win. And we did.
We won over and over again, taking away 9 of the final 15 contests from Senator Obama, but it was not enough. In the end, whatever the spin, we simply did not have the total delegates to stop Obama. By June, when we watched Hillary stump, it was for her nemesis.
In a tragic turn for her disciples, we had to go through a huge metamorphosis of thought. What began in our hearts and minds as "Who will be the best candidate to take down John McCain in November?" transformed into "Do I support McCain (the guy I like who stands for some things I hate) or Do I support Obama (the guy I don't like who stole away my dream but shares more of my goals)?" This was no easy decision, and no easy shift out of our comfort zone.
In the eternal battle of heart versus mind, many of us did end up making the transition over to Obama. Others of us proudly bucked our party and got behind McCain. Still others remained hopelessly unsure what to do. A surprising many of us still struggle with this decision still today.
But it is indeed 3 a.m. in the White House, and the phone is ringing. It's up to the voters of America to decide who is best suited to take the lead and steer us in a better direction. This election has been quite an adventure, full of twists and turns, ups and down. The surprises have been endless.
The last year and change on the campaign trail has been exhilarating and terrifying. It's been uplifting and humbling. To those of you who gave me hell the whole way, thank you. To those of you who were with me for part of the journey but ultimately ended up against me, thank you too. And a special thanks to those of you who listened to an alternate opinion with an open mind, whether or not you ultimately were on board. This is democracy in action, and it is exactly the purpose for which I created this blog in the first place.
Tomorrow, America will speak. For us the people, it's time to listen to the majority of voices. Surely we all will be tuned in. The stakes are too high now to be tuned out, no matter what you stand for. And tomorrow, no matter who wins a majority, it is time to start embracing the change that comes before us.
As for me, I'm bracing (with due respect) to swallow the term and the reality of a "President Obama". In the words of John McCain, "I cannot wish my opponent luck, but I do wish him well."
Since publishing part 1 of this series after the conclusion of both party conventions, a lot has happened. Since that post, gas prices have plummeted. Since that post, the Dow has dropped over 2000 points. Since that post, a handfull of banks have failed. Since that post, the housing crisis has deepened. More people are in foreclosure than ever before.
People have a tendency to vote based on how they feel in the wallet. When things take a nosedive in an election cycle, you usually see a massive shift towards whichever party is not perceived to be in control. Think Carter/Reagan in 1980. Think Bush/Clinton in 1992.
So, things aren't looking nearly as good for my boy John McCain as they were only a few short weeks ago. That being said, it is remarkable that he's not in a double digit deficit on average. Today's RCP shows a 7.2 percent race, down from an 8 point race a few days ago. Still, Democratic and Republican strategists alike all agree that the numbers are inflated and a general consensus suggests a 3 to 5 point race overall. This, keep in mind, is in 'the year of the Dems'. The political waters couldn't be better for the Democratic party and AGAIN I stress to you that Barack Obama is underperforming his brand name. A generic ballot Dem/Republican race without any names on the ballot still leads the Democrat to a safe 10.2 percent victory. Obama has underperformed without fail all season.
Still, under current conditions and without a game changer, Barack Obama looks to squeek out a victory on election day. Here comes the Drawnlines Blog official predictions, one week out from election day:
Battlegrounds:
Ohio: Obama continues to poll at a 4 point lead, but I have faith in GOP get-out-the-vote organization there as well as a high number of undecided voters breaking for McCain. Also, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsed McCain a few days ago and he should have a strong showing across southern Ohio as well as in the Columbus suburbs. It'll be close, but I think he'll squeek through.
Florida: Obama's RCP count - massive. Early voting lines - around the building. Still the numbers are fairly even, with the Democrats just pulling ahead today in early voting if you combine returning absentee ballots in combination with in-person early voters. I put my absentee ballot in the mail today, and I'm a registered Democrat voting for McCain, so the estimations will show me as a vote returned for Obama until my ballot is actually opened and counted. One thing to always consider in Florida is that the panhandle - a Republican stronghold - has a massive amount of precincts in Central Time, and those precincts are open an entire hour longer than the penninsular part of the state. So, if Obama isn't ahead by several thousand votes by closing time on the East Coast, it's still in play. If McCain is ahead at all by that time, it's definitely over. After everything is counted, I honestly believe McCain will nose out Obama.
Virginia: Well... yikes. Virginia has trended extremely blue in the past few weeks, and I'm surprised that it's tipped in Obama's favor as much as it has. Turnout in Northern Virginia for Obama should be massive, and 2006 reminds us that those late-returning precincts could easily deliver the state home and into the Dems column.
Michigan: The wheels really flew off that wagon, didn't they? But you gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em. There's no way McCain was going to overcome the economic problems facing that state in the face of our latest economic downturn. The shift has been overwhelmingly toward Obama, and no amount of money or time was going to fix it.
Missouri: Gotta have faith. Obama narrowly nosed out Clinton 49% to 48% by driving up massive margins of victory in St Louis and Kansas City, but losing almost everywhere else. Can he pull off the same in the general election? Let's hope not. This true bellweather state should theoretically come home for McCain - yes, still.
North Carolina: What a surprise shift! If the Republicans lose North Carolina, they don't deserve the white house. This is a red state among red states. The metrics should be in McCain's favor big time. Yet, Obama has managed to climb ahead of him in recent weeks - though by extremely narrow margins. Will undecided voters bring home this red state? Most likely. I'm counting on it.
Colorado and New Mexico are off the table now. The economic trends should deliver Obama a clear victory.
Nevada: I'm still keeping my fingers crossed here, because this is considered a red state, but there's no doubt about it - hispanics are moving over to Obama at alarming rates. It's gonna be close!
Finally, Pennsylvania: McCain is pushing hard in this state, and he honestly thinks he's got a winning strategy to shift this oft-desired blue state into the Republican column. Bush wasn't able to do it in 2000 or in 2004, despite a great ground game and spending plenty of money and time there. McCain thinks he can outperform Bush in the Philly suburbs full of moderate Republicans and in Pittsburgh, but I don't see how he can run up nearly the margins Bush did in the so-called "T" of central and northern PA. Then again, it's widely held that Obama won't come close to Kerry's 412,000 vote margin of victory in Philadelphia County, so we might see a fair fight after all. Will Pennsylvanians remember the awful treatment they got from Obama in April? I'm guessing not, and not counting on their electoral votes at the end of the day.
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Final: So, after all the votes come in and are counted and recounted, we get a much different outcome if the race were held tomorrow rather than after the conventions. After careful consideration and my best shot at an objective analysis, here it is:
Obama/Biden: 286 McCain/Palin: 252
Unless we see a huge shift in the next week, Obama can keep measuring the curtains in the Oval Office. He'll be moving in soon. Yikes!
In spite of the odds and the metrics standing against him, John McCain is pushing as hard as ever for a win in Blue State Pennsylvania. Many Pennsylvania insiders on both sides agree that the 11.4 RCP deficit he is working against is overblown, but still the records show this is a huge uphill battle. President Bush lost the state 51/48 to Kerry despite a massive ground game. Now, over the next two weeks, McCain must find a way to turn the tide.
If he's going to do it, I strongly feel this is what he HAS TO do to get through to keystone voters:
Senator McCain,
Now that your campaign finds itself backed into the corner, we both know that it's going to come down to whether or not you can - in addition to holding on to the vast majority of the Bush swing states - turn Pennsylvania around.
This will be no small task, as you well know. I'm not usually in the business of offering up free advice to political candidates, and I'm a Democrat anyway. But this election is so important - and the imperitive that Barack Obama not win this election so urgent - that I'm obligated to give with you some insight. If any of it helps at all, you're welcome. If not, I'm truly sorry. Please win anyway. I'll send money.
I've arranged my urgent advice to you into a few basic points, in no particular order. They are as follows:
1) Spend more time there. Spend LOTS more time there. Every other day, you or Governor Palin needs to be in Pennsylvania. No, I'm not kidding. You can't spend as much money as Barack has to spend, but you can beat the amount of face time he gives. He's spread thin by trying to visit red states that will end up coming home to you anyway. Use that to your advantage and get up close and personal with the voters there. No more trips to Wisconsin for you. And bring your friends if at all possible! Where the heck has Lieberman been? Where's Tom Ridge? Got some generals and admirals up your sleeve? Bring them too!
2) Turn Obama's advantages into disadvantages. Obama has a ton of money because he backed out of public campaign financing. He broke his word in an attempt to buy this election, and it just might work. People don't like being taken for fools, especially not the people of Pennsylvania. At your rallies, explain to them that you came personally to talk with them, while Senator Obama would rather attack them through their television sets and talk at them. Also, he's opening up campaign offices like crazy to enlist an army of footsoldiers to go twist people's arms. If that sounds familiar, it's because that's classic old-school Chicago style politics. Pennsylvanians won't care for that.
3) Don't give up the ad war in Philadelphia. You'll never win in Philly obviously, but you need to stay in the faces of voters in the city and suburbs. Kerry won Phildelphia County by 412,000 votes. Obama will never get that - unless you concede the area. He didn't get the margin he was hoping for in the primaries, and he won't now. Likewise, Clinton beat him in Montgomery County and mopped the floor with him in Bucks County. Both of these are in the Philly media market, and you desperately need them in your column. People in this part of the state aren't as conservative as other parts of the state - so play up the sensible solutions thing - and throw in the maverick thing a few times for good measure. No pictures of dead fetuses or gays holding hands.
4) Forget the "T" strategy. You simply don't have the ground game that Bush had in 2004, and he lost the state anyway. You will win this region, but will likely not enjoy the turnout he did. Focus instead on Western - especially Southwestern PA. If you don't tie it up in Allegheney County, it's over. Drop some money and as much time as possible in and around Pittsburgh. But forget about TV ads here. Spend it on street crews, signs, and rallies. Get as much free press as possible. You're gonna need it. Obama didn't win a single county in Western PA in the primaries. Racism aside, this is the part of the state most skeptical of him. Hit him hard. There are plenty of votes here to tap.
5) Keep your message on contrast. Don't attack his personality. Instead, draw clear, specific contrasts between the two of you. For everything negative you say about him, you'd better offer something positive about yourself. If you're going to talk about Obama increasing taxes on small businesses, remind them EXACTLY how much an average small business makes in Pittsburgh. Then tell them how much money you'd like to save them a year, and how many employees' salaries would be affected. He wants to raise taxes on "big corporations"? Ask the people who used to work for US Steel about that. Ask the people who used to work for US Airways about that. Ask the people who used to work in coal mines about that.
6) Remind people of Hillary Clinton as much as humanly possible. I know that advice sounds silly, but hear me out: She won over Pennsylvania because she was one of them, and because she offered specifics - not because she is white. Tell people exactly what you want to do for them and offer simple, specific answers to tough questions. You come from humble beginnings and made something of yourself by working hard and striving to be a better person. Remind people of that, and tell them that you want them to be rewarded for doing the same.
7) And maybe most importantly, don't shy away from the underdog theme. Shake every hand possible, look them in the eye and tell them in no uncertain terms that you need them to come to the polls for you so that you can fight for them. Let them know that if they bring their friends and family to the polls on election day, you will win. And above all else, make sure they know that a vote for you is a vote for them. You're in the land of Rocky. Whatever you do, keep getting off the mat. The people have saved you before, and your fate is in their hands once more.
Good luck, Senator. You're going to need it, and I'm counting on you.
For this, I've gotten endless grief from all sides. From my family. From my friends. From my old political allies. Still, I stand. I'll stand, even if I must stand alone. And I do so, because I know I'm right.
So many who know me are flabbergasted by the idea that I wouldn't be voting for Barack Obama on November 4th. You know I'm a Democrat, and it confounds your wildest dreams that I wouldn't get behind the guy with the (D) after his name. You've called me and those in my position everything from stupid to crazy. Now, for perhaps the final time, allow me to explain myself to you. I have no illusion that you'll agree with my choice, nor do I have any illusion that you'll join me, but maybe - just maybe -you'll understand.
This election is about more than any individual issue. It's not about fixing social security, nor is it about healthcare. It isn't about taxes or war. It isn't about Iowa or Iraq. This campaign is about broader brush issues than any of these - though I admit they are all crucially important.
This campaign is about Talk versus Action. It's about Rhetoric versus Resume.
2008 is a year where we must decide to pull the lever for either someone who inspires us from behind the pulpit, or someone who inspires us from behind enemy lines. It's true what they say, "Some politicians use change to promote their careers. Others use their careers to promote change." This is true, and the contrast is blatantly obvious in this election. On one hand, there is a man who has fought for reform at his own political peril against and with both parties for decades. On the other hand, a man who has served his entire political career running for the next higher office.
Again, I have no illusions about the other realities and eccentricities of this campaign. I'm fully aware of the drastic changes in momentum that have taken shape across the abnormally tumultuous time in our financial markets, and I have no illusion about whose fault that is. Championing Hillary Clinton all the way through the primaries long after her campaign had been called dead taught me a hard lesson in not giving up on what I believe, no matter how steep the mountain I must climb. I've learned to never accept something as impossible if I know it must come true. I've learned never to take "No" for an answer, and I've learned to stand my ground even if nobody will stand with me.
I've never been a bandwagon jumper, and I don't intend to become one now. That's my own way of partaking in this theme of Talk versus Action... and you can be as mad as you want to be.
Many of you don't believe that Senator Obama acts on what is politically convenient first, what's best for the country second. Here's your proof that you're wrong.
In the primaries, Barack Obama had 22 debates with Senator Clinton.
She challenged him to a debate in Wisconson, he refused. He said that people had heard enough.
Then they debated in Texas, then in Ohio. He lost both states.
Then they debated in Pennsylvania, where he did horribly. He lost that state by almost 10 points, and ended up canceling the scheduled debate in North Carolina.
Senator Clinton invited him to debate her in Indiana, and he refused.
Senator Clinton invited Obama to a Lincoln-Douglas debate in Oregon. He refused.
After clinching his party's nomination, Obama was invited by Senator McCain to travel along with him in an ongoing series of town hall debates to take place all across America. To listen to the questions and concerns of all Americans and address them side by side. Obama declined every invitation.
Today, Barack Obama is railroading Senator McCain for wanting to postpone the presidential debate scheduled for tonight. Not to cancel it mind you, but to push it back by as much as a few weeks so that we can deal with our present crisis and he can do his job as Senator.
Does nobody else find this interesting? Barack has ducked AT LEAST 14 debates already, John has ducked NONE. When Obama debates, he loses that state. When McCain debates, he wins. Yet, now it's politically convenient for Obama to force McCain into this debate because it's suicide for Obama to allow McCain to do his job and show himself a strong leader. Oh, plus - as a bonus, Obama was going to lose Mississippi anyway, so no harm no foul.
Yesterday, John McCain announced that he would suspend his campaign and return to Washington to help find a fair, smart, and swift solution to our nation's dire and immediate need for help.
If you need a concrete example of what this election is fundamentally about, this is it.
Between now and November 4th, we're not likely to get a more clear example of the differences between John McCain and Barack Obama. It's not about some obscure vote some-odd years back, it's not about a great zinger on a late nite tv show, and it's not about who can outmaneuver the other guy in an ad.
This election is about talk versus action. This is the 3 a.m. phone call, and one guy is ready to lead.
This is not an obscure problem. Look down your street. Talk to your neighbors. The guy two doors down just lost his job in the factory. Across the street from him, there is a family that just lost their employer-provided healthcare due to budget cutbacks at the office. The guy you wave good morning to is supposed to retire in two years. His 401k just lost 50% of it's value, and he doesn't know what he's going to do to make up for the loss. And as you look down the street, you see the for sale signs that have been hanging for months with no buyers. Some families just couldn't wait to unload their homes anymore, and foreclosure notices already adorn them. This is the problem of main street America today. Not in some fantasy land, and not in the distant future. I'm talking about right here, right now, in your neighborhood.
So what do we do? Consider this: As the crisis reached a breaking point yesterday, both candidates knew something must be done. But what did they propose to do? Barack Obama wanted to put out a joint statement. John McCain asked Barack Obama to accompany him back to Washington to sit down with people and hash out solutions. This is what we're talking about. This is the real deal - raw, no spin.
Whether you are a Democrat or Republican, it couldn't matter less right now. Your paycheck doesn't know left from right. When your job is in jeopardy, you don't care if your employer is liberal or conservative. So politics aside, we need to send a strong leader to the White House. We need the guy (or gal) who will do something when the phone rings in the middle of the night. We don't need a speech. We need hands on, in-your-face action by someone who will do what's necessary, popular or not. We need help NOW - by consensus is possible, by force if necessary.
One man is talking about doing something. The other man is doing something.
Talk vs action applies to us voters too. Please please please engage your undecided friends and family sitting on the fence. Go out there and change hearts and minds. Tell them how important and obvious the difference is between the two paths before us. The election comes down to this. It's 3 am, and the phone is ringing.
With 54 days left before Election Day, Drawnlines blog is going out on a limb to make some predictions based on current trends and figures.
Battleground States:
Ohio: The state that cost John Kerry in 2004 will not yield a Democratic Victory either in 2008. Barack Obama got trounced by Clinton in March, rebounding her campaign on the backs of working class whites. It might be close, but I'm betting on a 2pt victory and 20 electoral votes for McCain.
Florida: Bush narrowly won (that's disputable) in 2000, followed by a 5pt victory in 2004. McCain has spent almost no money in the state, by contrast Obama has dumped millions into tv ads and ground operation, and is still trailing in the polls. Over the past few weeks, Obama has unleashed the Clintons, who are enormously popular in the state and who won a landslide victory in the primaries against him earlier in the year. South Florida won't carry him this time. McCain will take Florida's 27 electoral votes by 5 points.
Michigan: Now we're getting to the tough ones. If we are announcing one surprising prediction, this one surely is it. Michigan should be solidly blue country, but it's not all good news for the Dems. Labor matters here perhaps more than anywhere else. Detroit, the epicenter of Michigan's left wing, has been bleeding people for a decade, and things have only gotten progressively worse. Liberal Republicans in the suburbs were swinging to Obama, but Palin could help bring them back. Jennifer Granholm and Kwame Kilpatrick should be delivering votes for Obama, but they are both in enough trouble of their own right now. Also, McCain knows this state is a must win and has made more visits to the state than his Demcratic rival. If McCain can put together an impressive ground game, it's his. Mark 17 electoral votes for McCain in a squeaker, and don't be surprised if it's a recount. Probably no more than one percent margin.
Virginia: Bravo to Obama for putting this state in play at all. Lucky for him, Northern Virginia's exploding population of liberals, coupled with Virginia's high black population make this race neck-and-neck. In 2006, late-reporting urban precincts catapulted Webb ahead of Allen. Still, when the day is done, expect Obama fatigue coupled with pinpointed attacks to bring Obama back to Earth and Virginia's 13 electoral votes home to McCain by a margin of 3-5 points.
Colorado: Western liberals love Obama, and that's the only reason this state could even think about going blue. Obama plays well in Denver and the northern suburbs. McCain sweeps the southern suburbs and Colorado Springs, as well as much of the rest of the state. Turnout will be key, and experts predict that a ballot initiative ending affirmative action in the state should drive conservative-leaners and whites out to the polls. That bodes well for McCain and should barely rescue him from what would otherwise be a loss. Mark down 9 electoral votes for McCain in another photo finish. Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
New Mexico: Bush in 2000, barely, Kerry in 2004, barely. Hispanics should bring home this state to Obama by a comfortable margin, even though it borders McCain's Arizona. That's 5 electors for Obama, by 5%.
Nevada: Things aren't looking so hot in Las Vegas as the economy downturns and the local housing market continues its decline. Those bread and butter issues will boost democratic turnout in Vegas, but will the rest of the state come to McCain's rescue and keep this red state red? Most likely. McCain should edge out Obama by a couple of percent, and keep in his column the state's 5 electoral votes.
New Hampshire: The granite state loves against-the-grain candidates, and it loved McCain in the primaries. They didn't show quite as much love for Obama, but he could have easily beaten Clinton here if it wasn't for a last minute turnout of women to save the day. At the end of election day, New Hampshire probably won't save McCain twice. Obama should comfortably take 8% and 4 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania and Indiana are sortof jokes, only nobody gets the punch line. McCain honestly thinks he can turn the state red. So did Bush in 2004. Except that things look worse for the Republicans here than they did in 2004, as thousands of suburban voters fled the party to join the Dems in the primaries. Though McCain is spending more money here than any other state, and though he promises a good ground game, this pipe dream will be out of reach. PA's 21 electors should definitely cast their votes for Barack Obama, by 7-9 percent.
Back to Indiana: Hillary Clinton was able to narrowly beat Obama in his own backyard in the primaries by appealing to social conservatives and by keeping down his margin in the Chicago media market's Northwest suburbs. Indianapolis and it's suburbs gave Obama his largest turnout, and this area should be his saving grace again in November. Still, the rest of this red state will come to McCain's rescue and preserve him 11 electors by a comfortable 8 percent.
Final Results
After careful computation, here's the crystal ball's predictions:
Obama:247 McCain: 291* Winner
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* If we are wrong about Michigan and Colorado, it's Obama's 273 to 265. But either one alone, and McCain's still the victor.
After the Democratic National Convention, it took a few days to see any bounce in the polls. Then it hit. Obama went from a dead heat with McCain to about a 7 pt lead over him. A 6 pt bounce is typical coming out of a convention, and he did one point better. Bravo.
But it took a few days to happen, and it didn't last long. AND, let's not forget, that number is still an underperformance against any blind Democrat/Republican poll, which now shows Democrats leading by about 10 points.
Now, John McCain and Sarah Palin have rallied their base, shown strong leadership, and dominated the news cycle for about a week straight. Today's CBS poll shows Obama and McCain again in a dead heat, 42/42... and that's before McCain's speech last night.
That alone is a bounce back from polls just a few days ago, and the Republicans have the momentum. In addition to the facts, the expectation game is also in favor of the GOP. McCain is clearly the underdog, but he's got a newly hastened base of footsoldiers dead set to frantically talk to their neighbors, open their wallets, wave signs, and scream until their voices strain. They will blog. They will rally. They will realpolitik. And they will work to turn the tide before election day.
You see, avid supporters of an underdog are far more likely to put their all into an election, because they feel relevant and needed. Barack Obama's supporters must know this feeling best of all, and now they should be afraid - very afraid - of the wave of support coming a them full speed from the right.
Surely you've seen by now that John McCain has chosen and announced his choice for Vice President.
It isn't Romney, nor Crist, not Pawlenty nor even Lieberman.
Nay, in Dayton today McCain announced his choice of Sarah Palin as his runningmate.
WHO?!
I'd never even heard of the woman. But after learning about her even a little, it's hard not to admit that she is an extremely compelling choice:
She haults - in its tracks - the Obama Bounce post convention, and immediately steals back the news cycle for the Republicans.
She puts Alaska firmly back in the Red. There was a fear for a while there that Alaska might be in play, or even turn blue. Net 3 electoral votes for the Republicans.
She brings back some of the women who felt extremely angry and abandoned by the Democratic Party, but who had resigned themselves to an Obama presidency over the past few days of the convention.
She helps calm the fears about those who fear McCain is too old school or too beholden to the special interests of his party. Her 'maverick' persona jives perfectly with the image he wants to rekindle in his campaign.
She invigorates social conservatives who have been frustrated with McCain and who worried he might pick a pro-choice VP. At the same time, she helps him on the left by being a historical choice and having a history of being just as tough on corruption in her own party as in the other.
Ok, we all saw Barack Obama speak to America tonight in front of 75,000 adoring fans.
Was he impressive? Well, he's freakin' Barack Obama, so his speech was of course: eloquent, on point, and of course, long. You could see the amazed look in everyone's eyes, and he had a good message.
SO. WHAT.
Despite the words of President Clinton, Senator Clinton, Barack Obama, or even the voice in my head nagging me about women's rights and the Supreme Court, I can't bring myself to do it. I can't even picture in my mind a ballot with my name on it and Barack Obama shaded in. And it hurts.
At the beginning of this campaign, I wasn't in love with anybody. Late last year, I remembered John Edwards fondly from 2004, when I hoped he'd win the party nomination if Dean couldn't. I remembered Hillary Clinton and her challenging times, but I didn't have a particularly fond regard for the Clinton brand. Then, when it came to Barack Obama, I was almost instantly turned off, but wanted to give him a chance before I decided. And I did, And I did. And he didn't win me over.
I was turned off by the way he manipulated people with his words, and I resented how obviously he was created as a PR ploy rather than as a fighting legislator. I was appalled to find out just how many tough choices he had dodged in his surprisingly short tenure in office. And I hated - hated, to my core - that his answer to every problem or question was to give a big speech in front of a big crowd. Yuck.
After all was said and done tonight, I received an email from BHO. He thanked me for my support, and said that without me he couldn't have achieved our party's nomination. He said that I believed in his message of change, and that he needs my support going forth. Well, I never did support him. I don't believe in his brand of change, and tonight was not my night. But he was right about one thing; he does desperately need my support now. And yours.
It is the policy of Drawnlines Blog not to tell you for whom to cast a ballot, but to get you to think and to encourage frank, honest discussion. I can speak for myself editorially, however, and I tell you now - I have sworn a blood oath not to cast a ballot for Barack Obama in November. Will I vote for McCain instead? Well, we shall see. He hasn't won me over yet, and he WILL have to work for it. But I refuse to coronate this guy. I refuse to put my stamp of approval on him and his tactics. I refuse to sit idly by as false promises are made on the back of false pretenses, and I refuse to be quiet while others do allow it.
So join me - nay, join us - if you dare. Stand up and shout from the rooftops, "No Deal."
I saw you in California at the Saddleback Church, and I must say you did a good job answering questions directly and honestly. Thank you for that. Many of us at home watched with bated breath to see what things you and Senator Obama would say to explain yourselves to us, and why we should or should not vote for you.
The polls aren't lying- the election really is extremely close. So far.
Many, many of us are truly are on the fence right now. I vehemently supported Hillary Clinton in our Democratic primary and typically consider myself a Democrat in my core beliefs. However, my distaste for Senator Obama and some of the missteps of my party have led me to strongly question my allegiance to it. That being said, I have followed your career since 2000, when I hoped you would beat George Bush to become the Republican nominee. Instead, you returned to the Senate to continue working across both sides of the aisle on progress for our country. I appreciate that as an American.
So I, like many of my colleagues, find myself in a quandry.
Senator, you are a strong leader with a proven record of working across the aisle to accomplish goals that benefit our country and our people as a whole, and that is no small feat. You have often given us straight talk at your own political peril, yet you stand strong today. For those things, you deserve great credit. You pass the 'Commander in Chief' test with flying colors, and you appeal to many of us who don't want to take a chance on a rookie with the missle launch codes. Still, I must convey to you that I have concerns over your candidacy.
I am a twenty-five year old white gay man from suburban Florida. My vote matters quite a bit, and I intend to use it.
I'm looking for a president that can get us out of Iraq in victory, not in defeat. But I also want a Commander in Chief that understands how much our military suffers from Don't Ask, Don't Tell. I need someone at the helm that won't tax my generation broke, but I also require a leader that won't let Wall Street tank my Social Security fund when I'm old. I couldn't agree more that Socialism isn't American, but when my family is sick, I can't choose between the better of several horrible, expensive options. I want to cast my vote for someone who will secure our borders to protect our country, but what about protecting us from McCarthyism and spying? I'm happy that you vocally stand up for the rights of the unborn fetus, but what about my basic human right to the same marriage you have? These needs tear me in two different directions at once, and I'm not alone.
To be sure, you are leaps and bounds more appealing to me than most Republicans. And Barack makes me want to toss my cookies. But is that good enough? Do I trust you to appoint fair Supreme Court justices? Protect Social Security? Fix our sick healthcare system?
You promise to work with Democrats as you have always done to come to collaborative solutions to our nation's huge problems. But my strongest fear is that your campaign and your administration would be hijacked by the religous right and the radical right. If there is anything you could do to assuage my fears, now is the time to speak up. Please don't forget that these elections are won and lost in the middle - not the far left, not the far right. Be the pragmatic maverick that we know and love, and I will help you to become the 44th president of the United States.
I was reading my daily news, as I usually do, and came across an article in the Chicago Sun Times that caught my eye.
The article is about Obama's 'women problem', and something in the article really highlighted why I don't like the man, and why I don't identify with the people he really stands for.
The problem is, we need solutions for people like "Sarah." The hoitey-toitey, organic chicken eaters that can afford to fork over thousands of dollars to the Obama Victory Fund aren't the type of people that need help most at all.
People like Sarah are the ones that fight the hardest just to make ends meet, and they get no say in an Obama administration. They aren't represented, and he obviously doesn't care. That's why he's got a women problem, and that's why working class voters don't care for him much either.
To my fellow Democrats: If you find yourself wondering why I can't drink the kool-aid; If you can't fathom why I don't just 'get on board' and 'get out of the way' or 'get with the program' on Obama, then my answer to you is stories like this one.
He just doesn't get it. And that's why he'll have to work hard for my vote in the Fall... and being a Florida voter, I know he'll want to work for it.
Yes, it's true, I identified pretty closely with a lot of what the Republicans stood for as a teenager. I was very moderate, yes, but nonetheless I truly believed in the message that George Bush brought to voters in 2000. I wanted to hear more about compassionate conservatism. I was hungry for messages about a smaller, less intrusive federal government that respected individual freedoms and demanded individual responsibility. With the impending economic slowdown that either president would inherit, I demanded to know that I'd be behind a guy that would bring tax cuts and economic relief to those of us who needed it most.
Instead, I got a president whose agenda had been hijacked by the religious right and by neoconservatives. I got the most divisive president ever. I got a man who used gays as a wedge to get his voters to the polls. I got a the guy that pushed for the greatest government expansion in decades. The most spending ever. The worst deficit. Tax cuts only for those who needed it least of all. Spying on the American public. McCarthyism. Blatant public deception. A world that hates us more than perhaps ever in our history.
George Bush made a Democrat out of me.
Now, I fear Barack Obama could make an Independent out of me.
I've been skeptical of BHO and his message from the very beginning. I've never bought into his 'audacity of hope' or perceived domination over the term 'change'. I don't buy that he'll bring a coalition of people together. I don't believe he'll get done the things that we need done. I don't like him. I don't trust him. And just because his name will and does appear with a (D) after it, I do not believe that he necessarily stands for the things I stand for. He certainly doesn't speak for me. In fact, the people he represents - a coalition of African Americans and upper-class whites - couldn't be farther from how I identify in my heart, let alone my actual demographic.
Nothing in my life has ever been more important to me than electing Hillary Clinton president of the United States. Not just because of what BHO stands for, but because of what she does. Rolling up your sleeves and fighting to champion real change is what our girl is about, and she absolutely positively should have won this nomination based on the merits of her arguments, her stances, and her experience. Also, her coalition of voters, which runs wider and deeper than BHO's. In fact, more people have gone to the polls for Hillary than for him. Actually, more people have gone to the polls for her than for anybody in any primary, EVER.
Yet, as this primary season comes to a close and the dust begins to settle, we see an odd trend. The candidate who has won the most votes isn't our candidate. Nor the big states. Or the swing states. Not even the traditionally Democratic ones. Not the border states. Not the bellweather states. Our candidates is not the person carrying women, the majority of the party. Not the candidate winning Hispanics, Jews, Catholics, or gays. How Odd!
And so, as this process does indeed come to a close, and automatic delegates seem to rally around the other guy, my candidate must bow out gracefully. She and I both know that it should be her accepting the party nomination - not because it was in any way owed to her, but because she was right. She is our strongest candidate. She is our most experienced. She is a workhorse, not a show horse. She does represent a broad and deep coalition. She would be a better leader. She would bring home the swing states and win in November with a mandate from voters. Instead, she will probably suspend her campaign within the next 48 hours. More likely than not, she will work very hard over the next months to get Barack Obama elected as the 44th president of the USA.
It's just a shame that now I have to campaign against her. That truly breaks my heart.
Originally Titled: "McCain or Obama? Tough Choice!" Written: Saturday, April 5th, 2008
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I’m struggling with something that will be very important and very tough for me come this November.
Many people with whom I’ve argued over politics have asked me what will happen if it comes down to Obama vs McCain. In honesty, I’d give it about a 60% chance that it will come down to this. Let me say REAL BRIEFLY though that it’s asinine to try to get Hillary out of the race now. She’s going to net some delegates and plenty of popular votes in the next few months which will really even up the score.
That said, again it might be Obama v McCain in the general.
If it does come down to that, I’m really sincerely struggling with which side I’ll be on.
Many of you know that I consider myself a very moderate Democrat. By that, I mean I have plenty of views more in line with the Republicans than my own party, and if I were a policy maker I’d be reaching across the aisle plenty to get deals done. So, often times it comes down to the person, not the letter after their name (R or D) which sways my vote.
I don’t like Barack Obama. I don’t! I don’t trust him, I’m not satisfied with him, I don’t believe in him nor do I believe many of the things that he says. We should all be very very skeptical and suspicious of him. But he does have one major advantage: he would be a Democratic president. That means that [some of] the things I believe in would be much more likely to come to fruition under him, especially with a house and senate along our party lines.
That being said, I DO like John McCain. I like him as a person, I like that he doesn’t necessarily do or say what his party wants, I like that he’s a free thinker, that he’s changed his mind on things over time, etc. I think he’d actually be a great leader, and I think he would be an excellent example of a true ’uniter, not a divider’. He’s a Republican, and he’d be working against and opposition congress, which could lead to some serious stalemates. More likely than not, it would lead to some pretty impressive compromises.
So I have to tell you guys, if you care even a little bit, that this decision will be a true struggle for me. Vice Presidential nominees will matter more to me than they ever have in the past on this cycle, and I hope that when you are considering who to cast your ballot for, you consider this factor as well.
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