Reuters: GOP candidates trade barbs, but one will carry the torch in 2012.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Last night, Broward County Young Republicans hosted a crowd of over 30 people to cheer on their favorite Republican presidential candidates on television at the Reagan Presidential Library. Young men and women from wide-ranging backgrounds came together to rally for the common purpose of electing a Republican candidate to defeat President Obama in 2012.

That task could not be more critical.

With an economy creating 0 jobs and unemployment stuck at over 9 percent, we know that the Obama tax-and-spend economic model is just not working for America. The President's far left, class warfare policies may sound good to union thugs and environmental nuts, but they aren't putting anyone back to work.

Although the economy falters under Obama's boot, government growth has been prolific. Big Brother is crowding out private enterprise. Burdensome regulation and mandates are choking off individual freedom and responsibility. Is this really the America we know and love? Of course not.

We need a fundamentally different path for our country, and that begins by hiring a new leader. Last night we saw a stage full of Republicans with bold, fresh ideas to turn around the Obama economy and return America to her rightful position of leadership. One of them will be the Republican nominee next year. Whomever you support for President, remember we are united in our mission to limit President Obama to one term. We cannot accomplish that goal by way of bloodying our own troops.

As Ronald Reagan concluded his remarks to the 1976 Republican National Convention, he noted the urgency of working together to get the GOP nominee to victory on Election Day. "We must go forth from here united, determined that what a great general said a few years ago is true: There is no substitute for victory, Mr. President." Republicans failed that task in 1976, and the country suffered four years of Jimmy Carter's malaise.

Today, that call is every bit as urgent.  We cannot afford another four years of Obama malaise. There is no substitute for victory.

RCP: Obama Approval Upside Down

For the first time in two and a half months, President Obama's net approval rating has gone into negative territory.  The president's poll numbers have been on a steady decline since taking office with the exception of two blips: the Arizona shooting that injured Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and the capture and killing of Osama Bin Ladin.  Following those two events, the American people rallied around the president with some renewed support.  That support proved to be soft and short-lived, as Obama pressed on with an unpopular agenda.  With an economy in trouble, high jobless numbers, and out of control Washington spending, more Americans blame the president than now credit him.  According to Real Clear Politics, 46.8 percent disapprove while only 46.3 percent approve of his job performance.  With a high stakes debt deal on the table and a $1 billion re-election campaign gearing up, the president will likely be looking for another miracle to turn his ratings around in short order.

NBC Miami: Obama rakes in donations in Miami

A link on NBC Miami's news site said yesterday, "Obama Visits Miami... Again." Indeed the president was in South Florida for a series of fundraisers Monday. With sizable Hispanic and black populations, South Florida will play a pivotal role in what promises to be a close election.

This visit follows a commencement address to Miami Dade College and other recent fundraisers, not to mention huge fundraisers with Emilio and Gloria Estefan and other high dollar donors last year. The Obama campaign hopes to raise $1 billion for his re-election, and Miami plays a large part in that plan.

The president seems to grasp how difficult his re-election campaign will be. While addressing Miami supporters, he remarked that half of the 40,000 daily letters the president receives include irate Americans "calling him an idiot."  The challenge is particularly steep in Florida, where unemployment remains at two percentage points higher than the national average and Republicans swept statewide offices last year.

Obama adds Georgia and Arizona to his 2012 wish list

President Obama knows he's on defense in several key states going into the 2012 election cycle. But while Team Obama concedes that the president's path to victory will be considerably narrower next year than in 2008, they do have their eyes on a few new prizes.

The Obama campaign acknowledges that Indiana and other Bush states are probably going to the Republican next year. But because of population shifts and other factors, Arizona and Georgia have popped up on the Obama target list. According to the Washington Post, Hispanic populations have increased dramatically in the two Republican-leaning states. Presuming that latino voters come home to the Democratic Party next year as expected, this could be a huge boon for the president. In Arizona, Obama also has the good fortune of not running against the state's native son this time around.

Obama still has plenty of routes to 270. Both parties have begun examining the 2012 landscape with optimism, though most pundits agree that the map looks much better to the GOP than it did four years ago.

WaPo: Daniels will not seek the GOP nomination in 2012

Commentary Magazine's Peter Wehner says Obama is the easiest incumbent to beat since 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in a landslide.  According to Wehner, if the economy does not improve before Election 2012, Obama is in for a walloping at the ballot box.




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by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been lauded as a “blue state governor with red state characteristics.” That characterization may not be charitable enough to describe the man who – almost singlehandedly – turned Minnesota around. Minnesotans decided they’d had enough of tax and spend state government and took a chance on a change of direction. That’s what they got from the man affectionately known as “T-Paw”.


When Tim Pawlenty took over as governor in 2003, his predecessor had failed to tackle skyrocketing taxes and ever-increasing spending. Jesse Ventura couldn’t do in St. Paul what he did in the ring. Minnesota had seen years of 20% increases in average spending. The Democratic legislature and a series of liberal governors from both parties had been helpless to control runaway government. The tax-and-spend culture resulted in ever-higher spending sprees at the expense of taxpayers, budget solvency, and indeed the welfare of the people. Despite huge tax hikes, they left the incoming governor with a 17% budget deficit ($4.6 billion). Pawlenty ended the open bar mentality, changed the culture in St. Paul, and eventually closed the budget gap.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics.

If Kelly Ayotte maintains her narrow lead over challenger Ovide Lamontagne, Sarah Palin will surely enjoy the spoils of victory in coming years.

Palin, who used her celebrity and endorsed Ayotte, found herself challenged by an 11th hour endorsement by South Carolina Senator Jim Demint. In the final days of the race, Lamontagne significantly closed the gap in polling and moved the race to "toss up" status.



While the race has yet to be called, Ayotte owes her thin and fluctuating lead over Lamantagne to Palin's GOTV effort. Palin vocally endorsed and made robo-calls on behalf of the candidate. And you'd better believe that Palin will remind Ayotte about her generous efforts in due time.

Palin has already thrown her weight behind winning candidates in important races. In Iowa, Palin backed Terry Branstad for Governor and Brenna Findley for A.G. They are the nominees. Nikki Haley came from behind after Palin's endorsement to win the nomination for governor of South Carolina. Palin pushed Sharron Angle over heavy favorite Sue Lowden in Nevada's Senate race to beat Harry Reid. And Kelly Ayotte would be a key ally in NH if she wins the race to replace Senator Judd Gregg.

As if by stealth, Sarah Palin has cultivated alliances between herself and influential Republicans in the four early primary states so crucial to capturing a party nomination. All of these victories place Palin in a strong position as Republicans shift their focus from the midterms to defeating President Obama in the next cycle. Early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina would make Palin unbeatable by other Republicans.

If these candidates win in November, they will be huge allies as Palin seeks the ultimate GOP nomination in 2012. If they don't, they still owe their lives to Sarah.

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