Bloomberg: Florida is Romney Country

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:


Florida Republicans need to know what's at stake when they cast their ballots next week.

We cannot afford to throw an electoral temper tantrum, or allow a purity test to cast our Party into obscurity. It's time to come to Jesus.


If we nominate Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, Republicans will be on the wrong side of a landslide in November. Obama could keep the White House and take out a whole lot of down-ballot Republicans with him. We can kiss the House goodbye.

Think you're afraid of disappointment with Mitt Romney? Think about four more years of Obama.  Think of handing the Speaker's gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. That's how seriously Floridians need to take their vote on Tuesday.

Nicholas Stone, Vice President, Broward County Young Republicans, Fort Lauderdale

This editorial originally ran in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Newt Gingrich has taken some sharp jabs on the campaign trail recently - not from rival Mitt Romney, but Rick Santorum.

In Coral Springs this weekend, Santorum launched his Florida campaign by taking Gingrich to task over his short tenure as Speaker of the House.  Broadsiding Gingrich from the Right, Santorum said it was conservatives that wanted Gingrich fired as leader. “When Newt was speaker of the House, within three years conservatives in the House of Representatives tried to throw him out and in the fourth year they did. Why? Because he wasn’t governing as a conservative!” Santorum said.

Rick Santorum had an alarming take on Newt Gingrich's "conservative" record:

Santorum on healthcare: “For 20 years, Congressman Gingrich has demanded and encouraged and fought to get a mandate from the federal level – the very thing that the attorney general in this country is fighting for at the Supreme Court,” Santorum said. “Up until last year, Speaker Gingrich supported that mandate.”

Santorum on pandering: “We don’t need someone who sits on a couch with Nancy Pelosi – I mean it’s not as bad as sitting with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, but it’s close,” Santorum said, to loud cheers. “I’m not gonna sit on the couch with anybody!”

Santorum on rhetoric and record: “He didn’t live up to all of the hype. If you look at what he tried to do and what he accomplished, it just didn’t match with what he said.”

For his attacks on the media and rhetoric against Romney, Speaker Gingrich certainly sounds the dog whistle for conservative voters.  His record, however, is cautionary at best.  Florida Republicans should take a serious look at Gingrich's past before they cast their ballot.  Historians often recall that Gingrich's greatest accomplishment as Speaker was securing a second term for President Bill Clinton.  Is that the legacy we want repeated?

Florida Republicans, you decide...

Mitt Romney for President 2012

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Am I the only one who thinks Republicans have a lot to be proud of this campaign season?

With a field full of accomplished conservatives running for president in the GOP race, you'd think Republican voters would be like kids in a candy store, with too many goodies in sight to pick just one. Indeed they are finding it hard to choose a candidate, but that's because they don't find anyone particularly appealing.

Seriously?

"Jesus isn't on the ballot," quipped one Christian conservative leader. And surely the Republican candidate will be a mere mortal, with battle scars, decisions that alienated someone, and a few past mistakes. So we're going to have to slap ourselves into reality a little bit.  But that is no reason to fret our field, especially compared with President Obama's dismal record.

For me, I've found my comfort zone with Mitt Romney. His background in the private sector proved he knows how the real economy works (for better and for worse) and his experience as governor proved he can effectively move the wheels of government (ditto).

Many pundits worry aloud that if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, staunch conservatives won't be fired up enough to go to the polls in November. Really? Even if they are not over the moon about Mitt, they should at least be fired up about thwarting a second Obama term. The elusive group of Independent voters are quite warm to Mitt and appear ready to cross Obama off their dance cards if the right suitor comes around. And for crossover appeal, their only choices are Romney or Paul. That should be a very easy choice.

Mitt is the clear winner on the questions of electability, leadership and pragmatic conservative governance. He is steady, sure, and 100 percent pro-America. He has earned my vote.

But hey, those other guys aren't bad either.

Reuters: Ann and Mitt Romney Appear Confident Ahead of IA Caucus

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

It's full steam ahead for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney after a razor thin margin of victory in the Iowa Caucus Tuesday night.

The former Massachusetts governor originally intended to downplay Iowa and focus on victory in New Hampshire's primary, held next week.  But as other candidates billing themselves as the anti-Romney rose and faltered in Iowa, Romney found himself within striking distance in the Hawkeye State.  Romney's campaign became tempted to seriously compete in Iowa and possibly win both of the first two contests, setting up a delegate lead and reinforcing the impression of his inevitability.

Feeling confident about his standing in the caucuses, Romney predicted victory early this week, causing pundits to recoil or even predict an upset.  But the candidate closed strong, focused on the message that Iowans should pick him as the most likely Republican to beat President Obama in November.  As returns flowed in from caucus sites, a three way tie for first place quickly formed between Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney.  Paul eventually fell behind as his eastern strongholds concluded their tallies.  That left Romney and Santorum jockeying back and forth for a photo finish across the rest of the state.

Looking forward to New Hampshire's first primary next Tuesday, Romney appears strong.  He has improved his lead in state polls and secured nearly every major endorsement in the state.  Today, he is expected to receive the endorsement of local prodigal son John McCain, whose campaign came from behind to win the Republican nomination in 2008.  New Hampshire's significantly less-evangelical makeup could prove problematic for Santorum, who counted on religious conservatives to propel his Iowa victory.  Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman could prove formidable competitors, as NH voters have a history of skewing pragmatic (rather than ideological), libertarian (rather than socially conservative), and rebellious against inevitable candidates.

The Romney campaign has plenty to smile about as they have most surrogates and precinct captains locked up, resources in place, and a strong rapport with Granite State voters.  Indeed, Romney appears poised for back-to-back victories as primary season charges ahead.

WaPo: Romney Secures Key Miami Endorsements

by Nick Stone: 

South Florida is the most liberal, reliably-blue part of the Sunshine State.  But it's also home to the state's three largest groups of Republicans.

Miami-Dade County is home to Florida's actively partisan Cuban community and some 367,500 registered Republicans.  Their votes can be strategic in offsetting more rural, conservative parts of the state.  Just ask John McCain.

Four years ago, John McCain's Florida victory paved his way to the GOP nomination by squeezing past Mitt Romney in the primary and taking all of Florida's delegates.  McCain swamped Romney in Miami by a margin of 76,356 to 24,189 - more than enough to offset Romney strongholds in Southwest and Northeast Florida.

This year, Romney has called out the heavy artillery to put Dade County in his column.  His campaign made an astute move by hiring Miami native JC Hernandez as Florida Field Director.  At a Miami campaign stop this morning, Romney will announce endorsements from Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart as well as former Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart.  This heavy hitting trifecta will use their Cuban-Republican bona fides to tip the scales in Romney's favor between now and January.

The "Other" Miami Factor: Jeb Bush.

Four years ago, former Governor Jeb Bush did not officially back a candidate in the Florida primary.  Behind the scenes however, Bush urged his close allies to "take a look" at Mitt Romney.  As we previously wrote, "Many did just that" and several Bush allies joined Team Romney.  As Texas Governor Rick Perry edged past Romney in polls earlier this year, Bush was found not-so-subtly praising Romney to conservative journalists.  Jeb's support, either behind the scenes or on the front lines, could be the deciding factor in Miami and across Florida.

The winner of the early Florida primary is likely to seize momentum and win the Republican nomination for president.  Mitt Romney knows his path to victory goes right through the heart of Miami.

(updated post)

Next February, PBS will introduce the next episode of American Experience: The Presidents.  In this chapter, the presidency of Bill Clinton (1993-2001).

by Nick Stone: 

Daily headlines spell either inevitable doom or smooth sailing for President Obama's re-election. To clear the confusion, we decided to assess Obama's campaign and found that logic and history show an uphill climb to a second term.

False start.  Let's look back to where we began in 2008. Obama was at the peak of his prestige at the historic moment of his election. But while the world clamored for Obama, only 53 percent of Americans pulled the lever and voted for him.

So we start with 53%. Does anyone really believe Obama hasn't lost a mere four percent of his support, putting him below the halfway mark? Of course not. Indeed according to Real Clear Politics averages, Obama has been treading below the 50% mark since November 2009, two full years ago.  Modern presidents want to see their approval ratings well north of 50% a year out from Election Day to avoid disaster.


Nowhere to run. Polls show erosion of Obama's progressive base, but he can't run much further Left to appease them. Obama can't count on winning 52% of Independents (Democrat presidential candidates rarely win this group) or picking off 20% of conservatives like 2008, and he can't run Right to get them back.  So the president is in precarious posture heading into the election.

Bush-whacked. The electoral map looks much worse for Obama than it did four years ago.  Census figures show electoral votes leaving reliably blue states for red states, so even if he won on exactly the same turf, the president would have 6 fewer electoral votes than in '08.  But he won't win many of those states.  The president faces serious headwind in the 2004 Bush states he previously picked off. Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina will most certainly swing back into the GOP column and Ohio and Florida are likely to follow suit.  Take away the one elector Obama won from Nebraska and Obama's electoral math is down to 272.

The GOP is committed to strong campaigns in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which together put 46 electors in play.  That brings Obama down to 226 firm EV's.  If Mitt Romney emerges as the GOP nominee, New Hampshire's 4 EV's go almost immediately into the Republican column.  That's only 222 firm EV's for the president.  Looking west, Republicans will certainly put Colorado and Nevada (both Bush states) back into play next year, forcing the President's count down even further to 207.  Obama is unlikely to win any states he hasn't previously won, though the campaign has deluded itself into thinking that Georgia and Arizona are in play.  We say No Way to that assertion.

An objective analysis of the Electoral Map puts Obama at 207, "Republican" at 219 and 112 EV's in play.

Bad News Barry.  Economists say there is a looming chance of a second recession. The Supreme Court is likely to overturn Obamacare in the middle of campaign season. Administration scandals, scandals and more scandals keep surfacing.  Americans aren't any better off economically than they were four years ago.  If the Carter-like onslaught of bad news keeps piling up, voters are increasingly likely to take a chance on a new president.

History. The record isn't kind to incumbent Dems. Only FDR and Bill Clinton have been re-elected in modern history.  The others have been killed, lost their election bids or chosen not to run at all.  Yes, it's really that bad.

Divide and Conquer.  Ironically, voter frustration may be the Ace up Obama's sleeve.  Perhaps the only chance Obama has to secure victory in 2012 is to divide the field into a three-way race.  Like Perot's candidacy allowed Bill Clinton to win with only 43% of the vote in 1992 and 49% in 1996, Obama could conceivably carry some 40+ percent of the vote and find his way to the magical 270  if Americans become so unimpressed by the major parties that many support a third candidate.  Without a tiebreaker, the metrics don't look great for Obama.

Chron.com: Cain and Gingrich Share a Laugh at Lincoln-Douglas Debate

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and business mogul Herman Cain squared off in a Lincoln-Douglas style debate in Texas on Saturday.  It was the first of several one-on-one debates the men are expected to participate in during the primary election cycle.

Dear Reader,

Election season is really heating up!

Republican candidates have built ground campaigns and laid out economic plans, but they've also participated in a series of debates across the nation.  The debates had been pretty tame, but last night in Nevada the gloves finally came off.  Now the tough questions have to be answered.

What did you think?

Please take a moment to share your thoughts about the candidates and debates with Drawnlines.  We look forward to hearing from you.

Cheers,

Nick Stone
Editor, Drawnlines Politics

Washington Examiner: Mitt Romney Dominates NH Debate

The Weekly Standard had this to say:  "When the rescue of major banks in 2008 and its aftermath was discussed, Romney took the lead. He explained why the $700 billion bailout was necessary to save the economy and the currency. Later, he insisted the massive regulations in the Dodd-Frank bill, passed last year, would crush small and community banks and dry up their ability to lend. On both issues, his opponents for the GOP nomination deferred to him."  The Examiner said Romney "dominated the debate."

This afternoon, Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) endorsed Governor Romney, citing his economic experience and leadership.  This move is seen as a huge boost to Romney, whose establishment support will be pivotal in securing the nomination. According to the Washington Examiner, "This is not someone who decided to run for president off the back of an envelope," Christie said of Romney. Some candidates say, "'I think I can win, I hope I'm ready,'" Christie continued. "Mitt Romney says, 'I hope I can win, I know I'm ready.'"

Though core conservatives remain skeptical of Romney, challengers haven't been able to take away his lead.  Rich Lowry said although Romney "doesn't connect (with the conservative base), in some way he does impress."  That may be enough to keep Romney ahead of his chief rival, Texas Governor Rick Perry.  After making a huge splash last month, Perry fizzled in the face of poor debate performances.  Matt Dowd explained, "I don't see how Rick Perry is on a path to the nomination, but he can have a scorched earth campaign against Romney."

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics: 

Imagine this scenario:  Americans are weary from four years of disarray both at home and abroad.  A complicated war has left the President's base alienated.  A culture war at home has left the Party divided.  A massive new federal program has incensed the opposition and exploded the deficit.  As an election looms, nervous Democrats turn on one another and descend into political meltdown.  Even the most loyal journalists eventually turn on the once popular President and the headlines aren't pretty.  A second term once seemed inevitable, but now appears impossible.

If this scenario seems implausible in 2012, would you be surprised to learn it has already happened?

1968: Johnson stuns the world by announcing he won't run for re-election.

The year was 1968.  As bad news piled up for President Johnson, members of his own Party found themselves unable to hold their tongues.  The base fractured and revolted.  Despite an intense effort to drown a primary challenge from Eugene McCarthy in New Hampshire, Johnson clung to a surprisingly narrow victory.  Against the possibility of an embarrassing defeat, LBJ announced to America that he would not seek, nor would he accept his Party's nomination for President in the following election.

Rather than LBJ, President Obama's campaign team has attempted to draw parallels to Harry Truman's 1948 comeback.  Of course, no parallel would be perfect.  Both Truman and Johnson took office because of the death of their predecessors, while Obama was elected during the death of our economy.  The base voters of the Democratic Party have also changed over time.  Obama was elected with 53% of the vote by an uncommon coalition of youth, blacks, Latinos and cross-over Obamicans.  Support from these groups has steadily declined, leaving Obama below 50% today.  If that math seems unspinnably bad, the history is even worse.  Only one Democrat in modern history has won re-election.


Speaking of Bill Clinton...

If President Obama truly believes in Democratic causes and wants to keep the White House away from the GOP, he may have no choice but to step aside. Last week, the Chicago Tribune ran an opinion suggesting that Obama clear the way for Hillary Clinton to take the nomination next year.  More recently, Clinton strategist Dick Morris wondered aloud, What is Bill Clinton Up To?, suggesting that he was laying the foundation for Hillary's nomination.  According to Morris, a senior Democratic strategist recently told him that if the metrics don't improve before January, Obama may consider doing just that.

Reuters: GOP candidates trade barbs, but one will carry the torch in 2012.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Last night, Broward County Young Republicans hosted a crowd of over 30 people to cheer on their favorite Republican presidential candidates on television at the Reagan Presidential Library. Young men and women from wide-ranging backgrounds came together to rally for the common purpose of electing a Republican candidate to defeat President Obama in 2012.

That task could not be more critical.

With an economy creating 0 jobs and unemployment stuck at over 9 percent, we know that the Obama tax-and-spend economic model is just not working for America. The President's far left, class warfare policies may sound good to union thugs and environmental nuts, but they aren't putting anyone back to work.

Although the economy falters under Obama's boot, government growth has been prolific. Big Brother is crowding out private enterprise. Burdensome regulation and mandates are choking off individual freedom and responsibility. Is this really the America we know and love? Of course not.

We need a fundamentally different path for our country, and that begins by hiring a new leader. Last night we saw a stage full of Republicans with bold, fresh ideas to turn around the Obama economy and return America to her rightful position of leadership. One of them will be the Republican nominee next year. Whomever you support for President, remember we are united in our mission to limit President Obama to one term. We cannot accomplish that goal by way of bloodying our own troops.

As Ronald Reagan concluded his remarks to the 1976 Republican National Convention, he noted the urgency of working together to get the GOP nominee to victory on Election Day. "We must go forth from here united, determined that what a great general said a few years ago is true: There is no substitute for victory, Mr. President." Republicans failed that task in 1976, and the country suffered four years of Jimmy Carter's malaise.

Today, that call is every bit as urgent.  We cannot afford another four years of Obama malaise. There is no substitute for victory.

AP: Hillary's America Would Have Been Different

Politicons: Perry Wants to be President, but will The Bushes thwart his plan?

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

As the race for President in 2012 takes shape, stories continue to surface about the rift between Bush and Perry loyalists - G.W. Bush, that is.  The Bush 43 camp clearly has animosity toward the man who succeeded him as Governor of Texas.  Most prominently, Chief Strategist Karl Rove has made the t.v. rounds questioning Perry's qualifications and strategy.

Last week, Bush's brother Jeb found his way into the discussion.  Ironically, Governor Bush intended to play down differences between Perry and the Bushes.  Newsmax reported Wednesday that Bush praised Mitt Romney in an interview with Neil Cavuto.  According to Bush, "Governor Romney is going to have a proposal that will be longer-term and create sustained growth."

Insiders know that Jeb's praise for Mitt Romney is nothing new.  In 2007, Bush notably urged his close confidants to meet and consider Romney before making any commitments in the 2008 election.  Many of his inner circle did just that, and several did join team Romney.  While quietly steering insiders toward Romney, Bush remained officially neutral until endorsing John McCain in the aftermath of his Florida victory.

The Club for Growth recently offered tepid praise for Governor Perry, while simultaneously cautioning followers about contradicting policy stances and an interventionist streak.  Current Florida Governor Rick Scott has been vocal in his man crush over Governor Perry, citing his pro-growth policies and job growth in Texas. Perry also recently claimed support from former President George W. Bush.

As Florida's Presidency 5 straw poll nears, insiders will be listening closely to behind the scenes chatter and maneuvering between the Perry and Romney camps for the support of grassroots conservatives.  Dedicated ground support will likely make the difference in Florida's delegate rich primary election next year.

To President Obama's credit, he has tackled recent debt talks with shocking transparency. For starters, he has laid out his re-election campaign strategy. Unable to run on his economic record, the president has doubled down on traditional leftist class warfare against straw men like billionaires, corporate jets, and fat cats. In meetings with Republican leaders, Obama has also fallen into the same trap as he did during the Bush tax cut extensions last year. That is to say, Democrats were horrified that the president never even fought to decouple the tax deal and allow taxes to rise on upper income earners. This time, he announced early that there will be Social Security and Medicare cuts in the final tax deal.

Let's repeat that. The president himself - not Republican lawmakers - announced and prepared lawmakers to sign onto a deal which cuts into those programs. Perhaps the DCCC will run an ad with Obama pushing a grandmother off a cliff now?

Last and most shockingly, President Obama accidentally warned the press of his plans to hike taxes after the election. If he receives a second term, Obama warned, he will raise tax rates in addition to huge hikes in payroll taxes already built into his budgets. According to Obama, "What we have talked about is that starting in 2013, that we have gotten rid of some of these egregious loopholes that are benefiting corporate jet owners or oil companies at a time where they're making billions of dollars of profits." John Hayward at Human Events noted of the stumble, "So, we’ve got an ominous promise by Obama to raise taxes again, if he gets re-elected. That’s right, again. He’s already raised billions of dollars in new taxes, and should never be allowed to pretend otherwise." To support his argument, Hayward pointed to a recent Wall Street Journal article highlighting just a few of the egregious tax hikes the president has already signed.

Will there be four more years for President Obama? Americans should think carefully whether or not they can afford the prospect.  At least the president is honest about what he would do in his next term.