444 Days Was Enough
Posted by Nick Stone Letter Series, obama, one term 11:18 AM
by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics.
Dear President Obama:
Though it's more than a little unnatural feeling to offer you free advice, here it is:
Don't take the bait from any side on the Iran issue.
The American Right is trying to bait you into speaking out against Ahmadinejad by asking you to stand up for free and fair elections everywhere. That's actually bull. We can't police the world, and we can't allege voter fraud just because the election results weren't what we expected. We really didn't know what to expect because the polling data was all over the place. In much of the polling that put Ahmadinejad tied with or behind his lead challenger, nearly half of the Iranian public was still undecided. That is to say nothing of the fact that Iranian public opinion is notoriously difficult to measure because of cultural taboos and difficulties of sampling in poorer, more rural areas where the people are more conservative (and more likely to have voted for the incumbent).
The American Left wants you to feel lulled into a false sense that you can wash your hands and stay above the fray on the issue of the election. That's not going to work either. The signs that the protesters are holding for the cameras are in English. They're sending out their messages on Facebook and Twitter. They want the American people and the American government to see crystal-clearly that they are asking us to speak up for them. If we do nothing, we will have squashed the hopes of a people clamoring for freedom by simply not showing up. That's a terrible message. We are their target audience, and they are begging us to help them. The problem of course is that these people may well represent a minority opinion after all the tallies are counted and recounted. Just because they're louder doesn't make them more important. In elections, often times the other guy wins.
Finally, the Iranian regime clearly wants the US to get suckered into the fight so that we own the outcome of the revolution. No single move would do more to please the Iranian government. They would love to say with evidence and conviction that they have to strike down these protests on the grounds that they are American-led, and therefore meddling with internal affairs and so-called free elections. We cannot be seen as forcing regime change in Iran YET AGAIN.
Defending the unpopular Shah in 1979 brought about a revolution and put on hold the lives of 52 Americans for 444 days. Let there be no doubt, while 52 people were held captive, our entire nation's interests were hostage because of our actions and commitments. Regime management failed us with the Shah, and it failed us when we promoted the government reforms that ironically led to Ahmadinejad coming to power in the first place. The same tendencies got us in trouble in Iraq and landed Saddam Hussein into power. How many times must we touch the stove before we realize it burns us?!

Oddly enough Mr. President, it's incumbent upon this writer to speculate that your current policy on the situation in Iran is appropriate given the complexity and sensitivity of the circumstance. Speaking out decisively and curtly for free and fair elections while avoiding the appearance of any meddling with the results of a flawed but presumably representative election is the only way to walk the tight rope without falling flat on our faces.
After all, if Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah stay in power, it will be them we have to play nice with on the world stage. Better we don't show our teeth before we're sure if it's Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde answering the door in Tehran. If you underestimate the severity of the situation in Iran or if you choose to take the bait and own the results of these elections, our nation will be held hostage by Iranian meddling once more. Only another 1980 election could save us then. That's no joke.
Respectfully yours,
Concerned Citizen
Dear President Obama:
Though it's more than a little unnatural feeling to offer you free advice, here it is:
Don't take the bait from any side on the Iran issue.
The American Right is trying to bait you into speaking out against Ahmadinejad by asking you to stand up for free and fair elections everywhere. That's actually bull. We can't police the world, and we can't allege voter fraud just because the election results weren't what we expected. We really didn't know what to expect because the polling data was all over the place. In much of the polling that put Ahmadinejad tied with or behind his lead challenger, nearly half of the Iranian public was still undecided. That is to say nothing of the fact that Iranian public opinion is notoriously difficult to measure because of cultural taboos and difficulties of sampling in poorer, more rural areas where the people are more conservative (and more likely to have voted for the incumbent).
The American Left wants you to feel lulled into a false sense that you can wash your hands and stay above the fray on the issue of the election. That's not going to work either. The signs that the protesters are holding for the cameras are in English. They're sending out their messages on Facebook and Twitter. They want the American people and the American government to see crystal-clearly that they are asking us to speak up for them. If we do nothing, we will have squashed the hopes of a people clamoring for freedom by simply not showing up. That's a terrible message. We are their target audience, and they are begging us to help them. The problem of course is that these people may well represent a minority opinion after all the tallies are counted and recounted. Just because they're louder doesn't make them more important. In elections, often times the other guy wins.
Finally, the Iranian regime clearly wants the US to get suckered into the fight so that we own the outcome of the revolution. No single move would do more to please the Iranian government. They would love to say with evidence and conviction that they have to strike down these protests on the grounds that they are American-led, and therefore meddling with internal affairs and so-called free elections. We cannot be seen as forcing regime change in Iran YET AGAIN.
Defending the unpopular Shah in 1979 brought about a revolution and put on hold the lives of 52 Americans for 444 days. Let there be no doubt, while 52 people were held captive, our entire nation's interests were hostage because of our actions and commitments. Regime management failed us with the Shah, and it failed us when we promoted the government reforms that ironically led to Ahmadinejad coming to power in the first place. The same tendencies got us in trouble in Iraq and landed Saddam Hussein into power. How many times must we touch the stove before we realize it burns us?!

Oddly enough Mr. President, it's incumbent upon this writer to speculate that your current policy on the situation in Iran is appropriate given the complexity and sensitivity of the circumstance. Speaking out decisively and curtly for free and fair elections while avoiding the appearance of any meddling with the results of a flawed but presumably representative election is the only way to walk the tight rope without falling flat on our faces.
After all, if Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah stay in power, it will be them we have to play nice with on the world stage. Better we don't show our teeth before we're sure if it's Dr Jekyll or Mr Hyde answering the door in Tehran. If you underestimate the severity of the situation in Iran or if you choose to take the bait and own the results of these elections, our nation will be held hostage by Iranian meddling once more. Only another 1980 election could save us then. That's no joke.
Respectfully yours,
Concerned Citizen



