Bloomberg: Florida is Romney Country

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:


Florida Republicans need to know what's at stake when they cast their ballots next week.

We cannot afford to throw an electoral temper tantrum, or allow a purity test to cast our Party into obscurity. It's time to come to Jesus.


If we nominate Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, Republicans will be on the wrong side of a landslide in November. Obama could keep the White House and take out a whole lot of down-ballot Republicans with him. We can kiss the House goodbye.

Think you're afraid of disappointment with Mitt Romney? Think about four more years of Obama.  Think of handing the Speaker's gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. That's how seriously Floridians need to take their vote on Tuesday.

Nicholas Stone, Vice President, Broward County Young Republicans, Fort Lauderdale

This editorial originally ran in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

The Florida Senate recently released redistricting proposals for the next decade.  Reviewing the congressional proposal, several items caught my eye.  Partisan voter data doesn't appear to be available yet but a careful review of the map is highly telling.  Here is a quick rundown of political leanings by Congressional District as I see them:

North Florida Proposal

Central Florida Proposal

South Florida Proposal

Current FL Delegation: 19(R)/6(D) [25 Total]
Proposal: 18(R)/7(D) 2(toss-up) [27 Total]

Partisan leanings by Congressional District:
CD 1 - Safe Republican
CD 2 - Safe Republican
CD 3 - Safe Democrat (Majority Black)
CD 4 - Safe Republican
CD 5 - Safe Republican
CD 6 - Lean/Safe Republican
CD 7 - Lean Republican
*CD 8 - Toss-up/Slight Republican
CD 9 - Safe Republican
CD 10 - Safe Republican
CD 11 - Safe Democrat
CD 12 - Safe Republican
CD 13 - Safe Republican
CD 14 - Safe Republican
CD 15 - Safe Republican
CD 16 - Lean/Safe Republican
CD 17 - Safe Democrat (Majority Black)
CD 18 - Lean Republican (Majority Hispanic)
CD 19 - Safe Democrat
CD 20 - Safe Democrat
CD 21 - Safe Republican (Majority Hispanic)
*CD 22 - Toss-up/Slight Democrat
CD 23 - Safe Democrat (Majority Black)
CD 24 - Safe Republican
CD 25 - Safe Republican (Majority Hispanic)
CD 26 - Safe Republican
CD 27 - Lean/Safe Democrat (Majority Minority)

Summary:

If the goal of redistricting was to create more competitive districts, the project was a miserable failure.  I could only find two districts which have a truly competitive landscape (CD 8 and CD 22).  All other districts have a clear partisan bias toward one Party or the other.

If the goal of redistricting was to create more compact districts, the project was largely a success.  The new map is significantly more contiguous and intelligible than current districts, and follows county lines as a general guide for map making.  The Tampa area was very well divided between districts, though the Orlando metro was sliced apart with a Ginsu knife.  Districts 8 and 27 intertwine like two mating snakes, which appears more partisan than practical in its effect.

If the goal was to toss incumbents under the political bus, the project had mixed success.  John Mica, Dan Webster and Allen West all got hosed by either having their districts blue-washed or having themselves mapped out of their districts entirely.  Many other incumbents (Corrine Brown, Alcee Hastings, Debbie Wasserman Schultz) still have dream districts.

The new map is a step in the right direction.  It obeys the Voting Rights Act while attempting faithfulness to the principles of the "Fair Districts" Amendments from 2010.  From a partisan standpoint, the results are mixed.  Democrats could complain that conservative Democrats in North Florida will become extinct, while Republicans could counter that Broward and Palm Beach Republicans will go from endangered to near extinction.  The two newly created districts are split evenly between a predominately white, right-leaning district northwest of Orlando and a majority-minority, left-leaning district southeast of Orlando.

On balance, not half bad for government work.

Romney Campaign M-I-A.

Rick Santorum had hot teenage girls walking around in tight tee shirts that passed out propaganda while they flirted with unsuspecting men.  Rick Perry's peeps were around every corner slapping stickers on convention attendees.  They. Were. Relentless.  Indeed each campaign from Jon Huntsman to Herman Cain had at least a few loyalists with clipboards and flyers, ready to capture an undecided activist.

But not Mitt Romney.  The Romney booth was a truly pitiful sight.  There was no staffer to answer questions.  There were no bumper stickers or mailers.  There was a clipboard on an empty table soliciting contact info.  When I gave Mitt my name, I was the fifth on the list to do so.  Fifth.  It was a major failure of the Romney campaign apparatus.

Big Red Tent

I know the picture in your mind when someone talks about CPAC and other conservative gatherings.  It's a bunch of white, suburban gun owners.  That's just not so - at least it's not exclusively so.  I sat next to a wonderful young lady who confided in me that she was scared to death by fringe rhetoric from Governor Perry regarding his disbelief in evolution.  In each direction, active young people were cutting their teeth in conservative politics.  Every hue from ivory to midnight was present, with one crucial binding - the unflinching belief that Obama can serve no more than one term as President.

Perry-Romney Bromance

Before the debate began and during the breaks, the candidates often left their podiums to mingle with friends and one another.  But what struck me as most interesting was the camaraderie between Governors Romney and Perry.  The two men, placed next to one another anyway, stood in very close personal space laughing and joking about God-knows-what.  To contrast the chill between the men while the cameras were on against the behind-the-scenes buddies was just fascinating.

Politicons: Perry Wants to be President, but will The Bushes thwart his plan?

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

As the race for President in 2012 takes shape, stories continue to surface about the rift between Bush and Perry loyalists - G.W. Bush, that is.  The Bush 43 camp clearly has animosity toward the man who succeeded him as Governor of Texas.  Most prominently, Chief Strategist Karl Rove has made the t.v. rounds questioning Perry's qualifications and strategy.

Last week, Bush's brother Jeb found his way into the discussion.  Ironically, Governor Bush intended to play down differences between Perry and the Bushes.  Newsmax reported Wednesday that Bush praised Mitt Romney in an interview with Neil Cavuto.  According to Bush, "Governor Romney is going to have a proposal that will be longer-term and create sustained growth."

Insiders know that Jeb's praise for Mitt Romney is nothing new.  In 2007, Bush notably urged his close confidants to meet and consider Romney before making any commitments in the 2008 election.  Many of his inner circle did just that, and several did join team Romney.  While quietly steering insiders toward Romney, Bush remained officially neutral until endorsing John McCain in the aftermath of his Florida victory.

The Club for Growth recently offered tepid praise for Governor Perry, while simultaneously cautioning followers about contradicting policy stances and an interventionist streak.  Current Florida Governor Rick Scott has been vocal in his man crush over Governor Perry, citing his pro-growth policies and job growth in Texas. Perry also recently claimed support from former President George W. Bush.

As Florida's Presidency 5 straw poll nears, insiders will be listening closely to behind the scenes chatter and maneuvering between the Perry and Romney camps for the support of grassroots conservatives.  Dedicated ground support will likely make the difference in Florida's delegate rich primary election next year.

Florida Governor Rick Scott.

Drawnlines readers have read some harsh words about Rick Scott.  During last year's primary election cycle I was - shall we say - decidedly for the other guy. When a good friend told me she was considering supporting Rick Scott, I thought she was kidding.  When she said she might work for his campaign, I almost passed out in horror.  It turned out a lot of other Republicans supported him as well - leaving the rest of us crying in our cocktails.

For all the concerns I had about Rick Scott becoming our Party's nominee for Governor, I held my nose and voted for him in November.  Like other Republican activists, I made phone calls, waved signs and cajoled wavering friends.  Quietly though, I wondered what kind of Governor he would make.  On some level, I was afraid he would win.

Governor Scott slowly allayed my fears that he would make a mockery of the Party.  As he delivered his first address, I found myself nodding my head and cheering - not out of obligation, but out of true agreement.  "Government has no resources of its own," he said, and "can only give to us what it has previously taken from us."  How true that is.  "Taxation, regulation, and litigation," he said, form "the axis of unemployment."  Thank God, I said to a friend, that Alex Sink was not the one addressing Floridians that beautiful winter morning.

That's the first time I thought, "Maybe we were right to take a chance on Rick Scott."

Governor Scott's pro-growth agenda hasn't amounted to just words.  He immediately went to work implementing his 7-7-7 jobs plan, aggressively tackling reckless spending and over-regulation.  He made tough choices that no other Governor would, and even took on special interests in his own Party.  When the Republican budget came across his desk, he vetoed a record $615 million in pork and special interest spending.  For his tough choices, he took a severe hit in the polls - even among Republicans.  But the Governor knew that doing the right thing eventually pays off.

Mr. Scott has already made good on many of his campaign promises.  According to Politifact Florida, he vetoed pork barrel spending, required drug screening for welfare recipients, expanded school options for parents, and aligned state employee pension contributions with other states - just to name a few accomplishments. His laser focus on job creation and government efficiency has already begun paying off.  This year, Florida rose from sixth to third best business climate in the nation.  Next year, the Governor pledges to overtake Texas for the number one position. As reduced spending has improved our balance sheet, S&P recently upgraded our debt outlook from negative to stable.  This is excellent news for all Floridians.

On the issues, Floridians support Governor Scott.  They like his tax cuts on property and small business.  His pension and education reforms are wildly popular, as well as drug testing of welfare recipients.  His tough decisions are benefiting every Floridian as they go to work at new jobs, their children attend better schools, and their government becomes more accountable.

Florida's future is looking brighter, and so is the Governor's approval rating.  As the amazing rebound unfolds, I'm relieved to admit the obvious truth.

I was wrong about Rick Scott.

Karen Harrington addresses crowd, primary victory, August 2010

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Check out my regular column at the Broward GOP Insider.  This week: Governor Scott Needs Us.  As liberal bloggers and editorial boards pile on the Florida governor and our Republican legislators, President Obama and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz are preparing a smear campaign.  They think that a coordinated message war on Florida Republicans can put the Sunshine State in Obama's column on Election Day.  I'm calling for a massive, grassroots push back to level the playing field.

Last night, the Miami Herald reported that former Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina conceded defeat to Carlos Gimenez in the runoff for Miami-Dade County Mayor.

With 100% of precincts counted, Gimenez ended the night ahead of his rival by around 4,400 votes. According to to the Supervisor of Elections office, most of that margin came from early voting. Robaina narrowly beat Gimenez in absentee ballots, while Gimenez narrowly led in Election Day ballots. The lion's share of Robaina's votes came from his stronghold of Hialeah, while Gimenez far outpolled him in SW Dade.

Mayor Gimenez immediately faces huge problems, beginning with a July 15 deadline to propose a county budget to the county commission that closes a $239 million shortfall. He will also face issues regarding mass-transit mismanagement, hospital mismanagement at Jackson Health, and deeply entrenched corruption in county government.

Former Mayor Carlos Alvarez was recalled in a landslide this spring, leaving Gimenez to fulfill the rest of his predecessor's term. In addition to governing, the new mayor must quickly begin campaigning for re-election in November 2012.

Minorities vs. Florida Democratic Party (FDP)  as redistricting battle heats up

Florida is in the middle of a huge battle over redistricting. With two new electoral votes and two new congressional districts to create, lawmakers must decide whether they care more about compact districts or minority representation. From both parties, representatives struggle over the definition over the word "fair".

Democrats argue that the current system is far from fair. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told 538, "I think anyone would agree that a 19-to-6 edge in the House delegation in Florida is a very overstated advantage for Republicans in a state that voted for Barack Obama." That assessment may seem fair on the surface, but both Republicans and minorities benefit from Florida's districting process.

That process fundamentally changed following the 1990 census, when Democrats still controlled the Florida legislature and wished to secure better minority representation in Congress. According to Sunshine State News, "This deal ensured a GOP majority at the Legislature and gave African-Americans unprecedented levels of representation in Tallahassee. It was a win-win for blacks and Republicans."

But the current system was designed to level the playing field for minorities. Indeed, Florida's minority representatives from both parties have been unequivocally against the Fair Districts Florida amendment. Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami) have mounted legal defense funds to reverse the decision, which could decimate their ethnocentric constituencies. Is this fair?

SSN claims that in an effort to white-wash their Party, Florida Democrats have orchestrated the Fair Districts effort in order to squash notions that Democrats are exclusively the Party of minorities. And the interview with Nate Silver proclaims that there is a long history of division among Democrats between minority protection and Party majorities.  Drawnlines hopes readers note this story the next time Republicans are accused of race baiting or being anti-minority.

St. Pete Times: Cannon and Haridopolos pose for a photo op.

House Speaker Dean Cannon (R-Winter Park) and Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R-Merritt Island) began the 2011 legislative session by going out of their ways to ensure Florida that they would be on the same page.  After all, we wouldn't want another House-Senate smackdown (cough cough like the last two years).  Session went pretty well overall, but ended in meltdown.  Haridopolos was flabbergasted when the House timed out before passing tax relief. According to the Miami Herald, "The meltdown between Haridopolos and Cannon is a major embarrassment in a year when Republicans hold overwhelming majorities in both chambers of the Legislature." Haridopolos piled on, "To end this way, is a major disappointment to me personally and my fellow Senators are heartbroken by it."

But the bromance appears to be intact after all.  Speaker Cannon went a long way toward healing wounds as he appeared with Haridopolos to endorse his bid for US Senate to replace Bill Nelson.  Cannon gushed over his ally, "Mike Haridopolos is a trusted friend, a valued legislative partner, and a much-needed voice for conservative principles in Washington, D.C.”  The Senate President quickly returned the praise. "Speaker Cannon is a great leader who has worked with me in tackling entitlement reforms, cutting taxes, and ensuring that government lives within its means. I couldn't ask for a better partner in the Florida Legislature and I look forward to having the speaker join me on the campaign trail.”

Yesterday actually marked the second rollout of the the Cannon endorsement.  News originally broke in February that Cannon would support his legislative compadre in a private strategy session.

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics:

Read my Monday column Their America, Our America on the Broward GOP Insider blog. This week, I talk about what Republicans can do to win in 2012. First, they must control the message. Second, they must draw clear contrast between the Democrats' view of America and ours. This next election is going to be about the fundamental relationship between the people and their government, and it is one we cannot afford to lose.  Read it here.

Pam Bondi -- Post Session "Report to the People" from The Victory Group on Vimeo.

Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi sent out a video this week, highlighting the many victories related to her office. The AG's office worked with the legislature to secure both partisan and bipartisan victories during the 2011 session. According to the Republican Party of Florida, "Bondi's legislative agenda included support for bills to stop prescription drug abuse, ban a dangerous new drug, separate the restoration of civil rights from requirements for occupational licensure, and affirm that no Floridian should be compelled by government to purchase health insurance." Pam Bondi has proven her mettle in short order. She deserves tremendous credit for landing these exciting victories on behalf of Florida.

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St Pete Times: Governor Scott's Florida Jobs Tour

The Republican Party of Florida sent out an email yesterday, pointing reader attention to an article from the Orlando Sentinel on the best states to do business.  Florida ranked third, behind Texas and North Carolina.  Of course, RPOF didn't fail to put a little partisan spin on the survey results - and rightly so.  Since the 1994 Republican wave, Republicans have had an increasing level of control over state policy both in the Governor's Mansion and in the legislature.  Republicans have consistently enacted pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-business policy which has contributed to Florida's explosive population boom in the past two decades.  According to the RPOF, "In its annual survey, Chief Executive magazine cited the state’s low taxes, business-friendly regulations and quality of life." Governor Rick Scott has already made clear his determination to put Florida at the top of the list.

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Early voting ended Saturday in Jacksonville's mayoral race. The race features Republican Mike Hogan and Democrat Alvin Brown in a tight battle, with Hogan slightly ahead. Republican strategist Brian Graham commented that as the race comes to a close, anything can happen in a low turnout race like this one. Republicans and Democrats are eager to win this race and claim victory as a bellwether of Florida voter sentiment. Election Day is May 17.


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This Tuesday, Drawnlines editor Nick Stone and columnist Jessica Osman discussed Florida Changing Hands.  With a new Republican governor, a GOP cabinet and a slate of new Republicans going to Washington, Florida saw a wave of red in 2010.  But will the trend continue or can President Obama put the largest swing state back into his column for 2012?  

Plus breaking news:  Senators Lieberman I-CT and Conrad D-ND will not seek re-election in 2012, leaving both seats open for GOP pickups.



Tweet @Drawnlines to sound off about anything we discussed in this week's episode.


For campaigns, culture, news and trends, tune in to Election Night on Drawnlines Politics each Tuesday at 6 p.m. Eastern, exclusively on Blogtalkradio.

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This and other news available 24/7 on our Facebook Page:

• Kurt Browning returns as Secretary of State.  Governor Rick Scott appointed Browning, who served in the position, to oversee Florida elections.  Browning is a strong advocate for strict voter ID matching and against so-called "Fair Districts Florida."

• Pam Bondi takes over the fight against Obamacare.  In Wednesday's WSJ, Bondi says that if Obamacare is constitutional, then there are virtually no limits to the grip of federal control.

• Boehner Takes the Gavel:  The end of the Pelosi era took place this week as a sarcastic Nancy Pelosi handed the gavel of power over to a weepy incoming Speaker John Boehner.

• How Gays Can Save the GOP:  One writer talks about how a gay infiltration of the Republican Party could benefit both factions and change attitudes.  Could it work, and would it be a good idea?

•  Obama policies driving up fuel prices. Where is the outrage?  As gas prices top $3 a gallon again, the Obama administration has cut supply and increased our dependence on foreign oil.

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Listen to the best of Election Night on Drawnlines Politics.  Last episode, 2010 Year in Review. Tune in to our discussion on the winners, losers, and surprises from politics 2010. For blogtalk that's uncensored, unapologetic, and unwavering it's got to be Election Night on Drawnlines Politics, exclusively on Blogtalkradio.


Drawnlines Mobile is here!  If you read Drawnlines Politics on your smartphone, we've made it fast and easy to get your politics fix.




YES to SunRail.  With Governor-elect Scott being pressured to reduce the budget deficit, it's more important now than ever to invest in Florida's future.  High Speed Rail could be speeding through the Florida economy by 2014.


Will the Real Republicans Please Stand Up? Jessica Osman calls out the real RINOs for causing headaches and drama instead of using their talents on GOP activism.

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by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics.

Have you seen Alex Sink's television ads?

The Democratic candidate for governor of Florida sailed through her primary on August 24th, wasted no time seizing the middle ground for the general election.  While Republicans Rick Scott and Bill McCollum pummeled each other on the airwaves, Sink largely stayed quiet though the primary to let them duke it out.  All the while, she raised and saved huge sums of money from Democratic donors.

Now that the primary is over, Republican Rick Scott's ads are conspicuously missing from the airwaves.  In their place, Alex Sink has launched an aggressive charm offensive.


Republicans throughout Florida would do well to be afraid of Alex Sink's campaign for governor.  With reapportionment, education reform, state spending, and the looming possibility of a personal income tax on the line, they know that the GOP cannot afford to lose the governor's mansion.

The candidate has introduced herself to the electorate as a true reformer that won't kowtow to the fringes of her party. After a bruising primary like the one just had in Florida, Sink may just be able to pick off enough Republicans to declare victory in November. 

Sink is running an amazing air war, but Florida voters should ask themselves if the Democrat would govern the same way she is campaigning.  An end to partisanship?  How would Democrats in the state House and Senate feel about that? Keeping out special interests? Would left-leaning unions forgive that from a Democratic governor?  And ending corruption in Tallahassee?  Good luck getting an ex-Bank of America employee to stick to that pledge.

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