Retrospective: Screwing Up Elections
retrospective 2:19 PM
Originally Titled: "Screwing Up Elections - a FLA tradition"
Written: Saturday, February 9th, 2008
-----
There's little doubt in the eyes of America that Florida has a tendency to - well, screw up, elections. Ok, fine, I said it.
The more I think about it, the more obvious it is that it's going to be our fault if John McCain becomes President.
Romney was a hit in SW Fla, upper and western Central Florida, and NE Fla.
McCain won - oh - EVERYWHERE else, including the big SoFla 3, almost the entire panhandle, and the I-4 corridor.
Romney was counting on a win in Orange County - a conservative stronghold, and was really hoping to pick up West Central Florida (Sarasota, Bradenton, Port Charlotte, etc) but that didn't happen.
In Florida, a closed primary, I want to stress to you that it was Republicans - ACTUAL Republicans, not independents that made McCain the frontrunner officially. The race was make or break for not just Rudy, but also for Romney, who was counting on 'winning a Gold Medal' in the state after taking several 'silvers' to keep him as a possible front-runner. After his second place finish in the Sunshine State, his campaign was officially in trouble... and the polls started to look questionable a few days before the primary.
Florida may also have the dubious distinction of making Barack Obama nationally on par with Clinton. Now I know what you're thinking, "But Nick, Hillary won Florida with a good margin!" True, but we knew lots and lots of months ago that Florida was Hillary country, and she was going to win our delegates - basically - no matter what. Except, in true Florida tradition, we shot our own feet off. This time by pissing off the DNC and having our delegates stripped. Now it's our fault that she's missing a ton of delegates, and the story of her huge victory here was buried in the news by Obama's "momentum". GAG ME!
If Obama and McCain go to November head to head, I assure you, it's our fault.
OOPS.
If they do go head to head, I'm not sure that Obama can take him. I'll tell you why.
No doubt, in the eyes of many voters, Obama and McCain both represent a change from politics as usual. As stomach churning as this "1 + 1 = Apple" mentality is to me, the fact remains that in politics as in economy, perception is reality. Fine. So, in a country where we are absolutely exhausted and frustrated on both sides of the aisle, many see these two as the candidate of (hold down your breakfast, Nick)... "Change!"
The problem is, we already have questions about Obama's experience. True, many of us want a radically different direction in Washington. That goes for me too. But you can't fall off the turnip truck and be president. The problem Obama would have in November is that McCain has the history of being a maverick, often to the chigrin and severe annoyance of his own party, coupled with a long history of actually governing. He has real relationships with real politicians, he has his name on several bills, and he brings home results - even in unpopular situations. That's going to be a huge problem for Obama, who makes great speeches - arguably better than McCain's - but might have little to offer outside a great soundbite.
Bottom line: The Obama movement is dangerous for the Democratic party because it's over-fluffed and under-substantive. McCain is a clear and present danger to the dems, and we have to focus seriously on beating him... and we just might be using the wrong weapon against him.
But you know what? It's our own damn fault.
Thanks, Florida.
Written: Saturday, February 9th, 2008
-----
There's little doubt in the eyes of America that Florida has a tendency to - well, screw up, elections. Ok, fine, I said it.
The more I think about it, the more obvious it is that it's going to be our fault if John McCain becomes President.
Romney was a hit in SW Fla, upper and western Central Florida, and NE Fla.
McCain won - oh - EVERYWHERE else, including the big SoFla 3, almost the entire panhandle, and the I-4 corridor.
Romney was counting on a win in Orange County - a conservative stronghold, and was really hoping to pick up West Central Florida (Sarasota, Bradenton, Port Charlotte, etc) but that didn't happen.
In Florida, a closed primary, I want to stress to you that it was Republicans - ACTUAL Republicans, not independents that made McCain the frontrunner officially. The race was make or break for not just Rudy, but also for Romney, who was counting on 'winning a Gold Medal' in the state after taking several 'silvers' to keep him as a possible front-runner. After his second place finish in the Sunshine State, his campaign was officially in trouble... and the polls started to look questionable a few days before the primary.
Florida may also have the dubious distinction of making Barack Obama nationally on par with Clinton. Now I know what you're thinking, "But Nick, Hillary won Florida with a good margin!" True, but we knew lots and lots of months ago that Florida was Hillary country, and she was going to win our delegates - basically - no matter what. Except, in true Florida tradition, we shot our own feet off. This time by pissing off the DNC and having our delegates stripped. Now it's our fault that she's missing a ton of delegates, and the story of her huge victory here was buried in the news by Obama's "momentum". GAG ME!
If Obama and McCain go to November head to head, I assure you, it's our fault.
OOPS.
If they do go head to head, I'm not sure that Obama can take him. I'll tell you why.
No doubt, in the eyes of many voters, Obama and McCain both represent a change from politics as usual. As stomach churning as this "1 + 1 = Apple" mentality is to me, the fact remains that in politics as in economy, perception is reality. Fine. So, in a country where we are absolutely exhausted and frustrated on both sides of the aisle, many see these two as the candidate of (hold down your breakfast, Nick)... "Change!"
The problem is, we already have questions about Obama's experience. True, many of us want a radically different direction in Washington. That goes for me too. But you can't fall off the turnip truck and be president. The problem Obama would have in November is that McCain has the history of being a maverick, often to the chigrin and severe annoyance of his own party, coupled with a long history of actually governing. He has real relationships with real politicians, he has his name on several bills, and he brings home results - even in unpopular situations. That's going to be a huge problem for Obama, who makes great speeches - arguably better than McCain's - but might have little to offer outside a great soundbite.
Bottom line: The Obama movement is dangerous for the Democratic party because it's over-fluffed and under-substantive. McCain is a clear and present danger to the dems, and we have to focus seriously on beating him... and we just might be using the wrong weapon against him.
But you know what? It's our own damn fault.
Thanks, Florida.
Posted by Nick Stone
on 2:19 PM.
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