Retrospective: Super Tuesday
retrospective, super tuesday 8:03 PM
Originally Titled : "YES WE CAN stop Barack Obama"
Written: Wednesday, February 6th, 2008
-----
Super Tuesday, indeed. Let me tell you why.
It's widely reported that Obama is winning a huge turf war with younger voters.
That may be true, but he can count out my vote.
All the polls and pundits leading up to last night talked almost endlessly about the 'huge' momentum shift from Hillary to Obama, and admittedly I was biting my nails more than a little.
Still, in the end, Hillary's political machine proved to us that she's at her fiercest when she is underestimated. We learned that in New Hampshire. We learned that last night, and we'll learn it all over again when the FL and MI delegates are forcibly enstated into the convention. I truly believe they will be, not just because I'm a Hillary fan, but because it begs constitutional issues. Imagine if you were told you could vote on election day but your vote didn't count. Steam pouring out of your ears, people. Taxation without representation is more than a DC license plate slogan!
I digress. Sorry. This is the real news:
Hillary won a ten point spread in California-the biggest prize, which all the pundits said would be razor thin and the latest polls yesterday showed Obama up by as much as 13%. Sound the buzzer. Not ONLY did she win a ten point lead in votes, but because of the districts she won, she's got almost a 2-to-1 delegate spread over him.
Even in Georgia, which was Obama's biggest prize last night (you can't count his home state as a surprise), the way the delegates are proportioned and districted, he's not up by very much.
Two hugely important points:
1) None of the states last night (for the Dems) are winner-take-all. They are all proportioned and one district can only give you so many delegates no matter what kind of landslide you have in that district. So, if Obama won a heavily populated district with 90% of the votes, but Hillary won ten lesser-populated districts with 60% of the vote, she may still get significantly more delegates, even if the overall headcounts for the two candidates are neck and neck.
2) Obama won HUGE percentage victories in a few states and even won more states... BUT, many of those states have far far far fewer delegates to offer. AND, because of proportionment issues (see issue 1), Hillary still managed to swipe away plenty of delegates in those states that are considered Obama territory.
Also, if you WANT to talk about home-turf victories, here's a factoid.
Obama took 1 county in New York. Total.
Clinton took 14 counties in Illinois. Total.
Interesting? Hardly.
So, keeping in mind that we were supposed to be in trouble last night, and hearing tales of this huge momentum shift, and being told that we can't stop a movement, I say BLAH!
Hillary, you always surprise us when we underestimate you. You rock, you are an exceptional candidate, and I can't wait for you to win in November. Start marking your moving boxes with 1600.
Written: Wednesday, February 6th, 2008
-----
Super Tuesday, indeed. Let me tell you why.
It's widely reported that Obama is winning a huge turf war with younger voters.
That may be true, but he can count out my vote.
All the polls and pundits leading up to last night talked almost endlessly about the 'huge' momentum shift from Hillary to Obama, and admittedly I was biting my nails more than a little.
Still, in the end, Hillary's political machine proved to us that she's at her fiercest when she is underestimated. We learned that in New Hampshire. We learned that last night, and we'll learn it all over again when the FL and MI delegates are forcibly enstated into the convention. I truly believe they will be, not just because I'm a Hillary fan, but because it begs constitutional issues. Imagine if you were told you could vote on election day but your vote didn't count. Steam pouring out of your ears, people. Taxation without representation is more than a DC license plate slogan!
I digress. Sorry. This is the real news:
Hillary won a ten point spread in California-the biggest prize, which all the pundits said would be razor thin and the latest polls yesterday showed Obama up by as much as 13%. Sound the buzzer. Not ONLY did she win a ten point lead in votes, but because of the districts she won, she's got almost a 2-to-1 delegate spread over him.
Even in Georgia, which was Obama's biggest prize last night (you can't count his home state as a surprise), the way the delegates are proportioned and districted, he's not up by very much.
Two hugely important points:
1) None of the states last night (for the Dems) are winner-take-all. They are all proportioned and one district can only give you so many delegates no matter what kind of landslide you have in that district. So, if Obama won a heavily populated district with 90% of the votes, but Hillary won ten lesser-populated districts with 60% of the vote, she may still get significantly more delegates, even if the overall headcounts for the two candidates are neck and neck.
2) Obama won HUGE percentage victories in a few states and even won more states... BUT, many of those states have far far far fewer delegates to offer. AND, because of proportionment issues (see issue 1), Hillary still managed to swipe away plenty of delegates in those states that are considered Obama territory.
Also, if you WANT to talk about home-turf victories, here's a factoid.
Obama took 1 county in New York. Total.
Clinton took 14 counties in Illinois. Total.
Interesting? Hardly.
So, keeping in mind that we were supposed to be in trouble last night, and hearing tales of this huge momentum shift, and being told that we can't stop a movement, I say BLAH!
Hillary, you always surprise us when we underestimate you. You rock, you are an exceptional candidate, and I can't wait for you to win in November. Start marking your moving boxes with 1600.
Posted by Nick Stone
on 8:03 PM.
Filed under
retrospective,
super tuesday
.
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