Into the Crystal Ball (part 1)
mccain, obama 5:00 AM
With 54 days left before Election Day, Drawnlines blog is going out on a limb to make some predictions based on current trends and figures.
Battleground States:
Ohio: The state that cost John Kerry in 2004 will not yield a Democratic Victory either in 2008. Barack Obama got trounced by Clinton in March, rebounding her campaign on the backs of working class whites. It might be close, but I'm betting on a 2pt victory and 20 electoral votes for McCain.
Florida: Bush narrowly won (that's disputable) in 2000, followed by a 5pt victory in 2004. McCain has spent almost no money in the state, by contrast Obama has dumped millions into tv ads and ground operation, and is still trailing in the polls. Over the past few weeks, Obama has unleashed the Clintons, who are enormously popular in the state and who won a landslide victory in the primaries against him earlier in the year. South Florida won't carry him this time. McCain will take Florida's 27 electoral votes by 5 points.
Michigan: Now we're getting to the tough ones. If we are announcing one surprising prediction, this one surely is it. Michigan should be solidly blue country, but it's not all good news for the Dems. Labor matters here perhaps more than anywhere else. Detroit, the epicenter of Michigan's left wing, has been bleeding people for a decade, and things have only gotten progressively worse. Liberal Republicans in the suburbs were swinging to Obama, but Palin could help bring them back. Jennifer Granholm and Kwame Kilpatrick should be delivering votes for Obama, but they are both in enough trouble of their own right now. Also, McCain knows this state is a must win and has made more visits to the state than his Demcratic rival. If McCain can put together an impressive ground game, it's his. Mark 17 electoral votes for McCain in a squeaker, and don't be surprised if it's a recount. Probably no more than one percent margin.
Virginia: Bravo to Obama for putting this state in play at all. Lucky for him, Northern Virginia's exploding population of liberals, coupled with Virginia's high black population make this race neck-and-neck. In 2006, late-reporting urban precincts catapulted Webb ahead of Allen. Still, when the day is done, expect Obama fatigue coupled with pinpointed attacks to bring Obama back to Earth and Virginia's 13 electoral votes home to McCain by a margin of 3-5 points.
Colorado: Western liberals love Obama, and that's the only reason this state could even think about going blue. Obama plays well in Denver and the northern suburbs. McCain sweeps the southern suburbs and Colorado Springs, as well as much of the rest of the state. Turnout will be key, and experts predict that a ballot initiative ending affirmative action in the state should drive conservative-leaners and whites out to the polls. That bodes well for McCain and should barely rescue him from what would otherwise be a loss. Mark down 9 electoral votes for McCain in another photo finish. Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
New Mexico: Bush in 2000, barely, Kerry in 2004, barely. Hispanics should bring home this state to Obama by a comfortable margin, even though it borders McCain's Arizona. That's 5 electors for Obama, by 5%.
Nevada: Things aren't looking so hot in Las Vegas as the economy downturns and the local housing market continues its decline. Those bread and butter issues will boost democratic turnout in Vegas, but will the rest of the state come to McCain's rescue and keep this red state red? Most likely. McCain should edge out Obama by a couple of percent, and keep in his column the state's 5 electoral votes.
New Hampshire: The granite state loves against-the-grain candidates, and it loved McCain in the primaries. They didn't show quite as much love for Obama, but he could have easily beaten Clinton here if it wasn't for a last minute turnout of women to save the day. At the end of election day, New Hampshire probably won't save McCain twice. Obama should comfortably take 8% and 4 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania and Indiana are sortof jokes, only nobody gets the punch line. McCain honestly thinks he can turn the state red. So did Bush in 2004. Except that things look worse for the Republicans here than they did in 2004, as thousands of suburban voters fled the party to join the Dems in the primaries. Though McCain is spending more money here than any other state, and though he promises a good ground game, this pipe dream will be out of reach. PA's 21 electors should definitely cast their votes for Barack Obama, by 7-9 percent.
Back to Indiana: Hillary Clinton was able to narrowly beat Obama in his own backyard in the primaries by appealing to social conservatives and by keeping down his margin in the Chicago media market's Northwest suburbs. Indianapolis and it's suburbs gave Obama his largest turnout, and this area should be his saving grace again in November. Still, the rest of this red state will come to McCain's rescue and preserve him 11 electors by a comfortable 8 percent.
Final Results
After careful computation, here's the crystal ball's predictions:
Obama:247
McCain: 291* Winner
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* If we are wrong about Michigan and Colorado, it's Obama's 273 to 265. But either one alone, and McCain's still the victor.
Battleground States:
Ohio: The state that cost John Kerry in 2004 will not yield a Democratic Victory either in 2008. Barack Obama got trounced by Clinton in March, rebounding her campaign on the backs of working class whites. It might be close, but I'm betting on a 2pt victory and 20 electoral votes for McCain.
Florida: Bush narrowly won (that's disputable) in 2000, followed by a 5pt victory in 2004. McCain has spent almost no money in the state, by contrast Obama has dumped millions into tv ads and ground operation, and is still trailing in the polls. Over the past few weeks, Obama has unleashed the Clintons, who are enormously popular in the state and who won a landslide victory in the primaries against him earlier in the year. South Florida won't carry him this time. McCain will take Florida's 27 electoral votes by 5 points.
Michigan: Now we're getting to the tough ones. If we are announcing one surprising prediction, this one surely is it. Michigan should be solidly blue country, but it's not all good news for the Dems. Labor matters here perhaps more than anywhere else. Detroit, the epicenter of Michigan's left wing, has been bleeding people for a decade, and things have only gotten progressively worse. Liberal Republicans in the suburbs were swinging to Obama, but Palin could help bring them back. Jennifer Granholm and Kwame Kilpatrick should be delivering votes for Obama, but they are both in enough trouble of their own right now. Also, McCain knows this state is a must win and has made more visits to the state than his Demcratic rival. If McCain can put together an impressive ground game, it's his. Mark 17 electoral votes for McCain in a squeaker, and don't be surprised if it's a recount. Probably no more than one percent margin.
Virginia: Bravo to Obama for putting this state in play at all. Lucky for him, Northern Virginia's exploding population of liberals, coupled with Virginia's high black population make this race neck-and-neck. In 2006, late-reporting urban precincts catapulted Webb ahead of Allen. Still, when the day is done, expect Obama fatigue coupled with pinpointed attacks to bring Obama back to Earth and Virginia's 13 electoral votes home to McCain by a margin of 3-5 points.
Colorado: Western liberals love Obama, and that's the only reason this state could even think about going blue. Obama plays well in Denver and the northern suburbs. McCain sweeps the southern suburbs and Colorado Springs, as well as much of the rest of the state. Turnout will be key, and experts predict that a ballot initiative ending affirmative action in the state should drive conservative-leaners and whites out to the polls. That bodes well for McCain and should barely rescue him from what would otherwise be a loss. Mark down 9 electoral votes for McCain in another photo finish. Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
New Mexico: Bush in 2000, barely, Kerry in 2004, barely. Hispanics should bring home this state to Obama by a comfortable margin, even though it borders McCain's Arizona. That's 5 electors for Obama, by 5%.
Nevada: Things aren't looking so hot in Las Vegas as the economy downturns and the local housing market continues its decline. Those bread and butter issues will boost democratic turnout in Vegas, but will the rest of the state come to McCain's rescue and keep this red state red? Most likely. McCain should edge out Obama by a couple of percent, and keep in his column the state's 5 electoral votes.
New Hampshire: The granite state loves against-the-grain candidates, and it loved McCain in the primaries. They didn't show quite as much love for Obama, but he could have easily beaten Clinton here if it wasn't for a last minute turnout of women to save the day. At the end of election day, New Hampshire probably won't save McCain twice. Obama should comfortably take 8% and 4 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania and Indiana are sortof jokes, only nobody gets the punch line. McCain honestly thinks he can turn the state red. So did Bush in 2004. Except that things look worse for the Republicans here than they did in 2004, as thousands of suburban voters fled the party to join the Dems in the primaries. Though McCain is spending more money here than any other state, and though he promises a good ground game, this pipe dream will be out of reach. PA's 21 electors should definitely cast their votes for Barack Obama, by 7-9 percent.
Back to Indiana: Hillary Clinton was able to narrowly beat Obama in his own backyard in the primaries by appealing to social conservatives and by keeping down his margin in the Chicago media market's Northwest suburbs. Indianapolis and it's suburbs gave Obama his largest turnout, and this area should be his saving grace again in November. Still, the rest of this red state will come to McCain's rescue and preserve him 11 electors by a comfortable 8 percent.
Final Results
After careful computation, here's the crystal ball's predictions:
Obama:247
McCain: 291* Winner
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* If we are wrong about Michigan and Colorado, it's Obama's 273 to 265. But either one alone, and McCain's still the victor.
Posted by Nick Stone
on 5:00 AM.
Filed under
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I know how much you love a point for point comment, here's a state by state :-P
All of the following polls cited come from Real Clear Politics (RCP) as of this morning. I'll throw in a prediction or two down the line.
National poll averages: Obama 45, McCain 47 (MOE 3%).
If you switch to likely voters in electoral swing states, it moves to Obama 50, McCain 49 (MOE 2%).
Among first time voters (nationally, there are predicted to be more than 15 million, mostly concentrated in VA, PA, OH, and MI): Obama 58, McCain 42.
Here are today's RCP state polls:
OH:
O- 46.7 M- 46.7
FL:
O- 45.3 M- 49.3
MI:
O- 47 M- 45
VA:
O- 46.7 M- 49.3
CO:
O- 45.3 M- 44.3
NM:
O- 47.0 M- 44.7
NV:
O- 44.3 M- 45.3
NH:
O- 48 M- 44.7
PA:
O- 47.3 M- 45
IN:
O- 43.3 M- 48
OK. Now, being that RCP does not actively poll in all states, just the interesting ones, there are eight states plus DC (HI, ID WY, SD, WV, VT, DE) where I will use my best judgment to fill in who they will be voting for. Also, since the swing in OH is for McCain, he gets the votes.
The electoral result for today is:
Obama 273, McCain 265.
When the swing comes back for Obama in OH, the final tally on Nov 4 could be as high as Obama 293, McCain 245.
When it comes down to it, this is Obama's race to lose. The electoral college is definitely in the Dems favor this go round.
It is my prediction (keep in mind that this is the first opinion I've given in this response) when Sarah Palin (or is it Sarah Quayle) has to go out on her own, and women see past the good looking, powerful, motherly image; they will see that she would be a vote against their best interests... Joe Biden will see to that during the most anticipated Vice Presidential debate since Aaron Burr.
She will be an albatross around McCain's neck and the butt of some serious humor to come.
OBAMA 293, MCCAIN 245
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I would have to completly agree with your predictions. The fact that Michigan is even in play now is a testament to the fact that Obama and the dems party is just not strong enough. I see him taking MI in the end but us pushing through in OH and CO. It really is Obama's race to lose and he is doing a BANG up job these days. That said... McCain 274 to Nobama 264. Thanks to Sarah of course, I mean that is who you would think BHO is running against these days.
Even though the Internet has already concluded that Barack Obama lost the election after some unknown wingnut vice president lady gave one surly speech last week, we couldn’t help but check out the electoral map anyway, just for kicks. Now play around with this stuff for exactly two minutes, preferably while drinking, and after those two minutes you’ll realize that Barack Obama still has this shit safely locked up.
The safest route is still this: Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado. It seems doubtful that New Hampshire, a New England state, would go for any Republican in this particular election, even if WALNUTS! has won its primary twice. And adding a crazy fundamentalist Christian to the ticket instead of friendly neighboring Governor Mittens doesn’t do much for that state’s independent crowd. (Ha ha even though Mittens is a douche too.) Mittens could’ve significantly helped McCain in Michigan, though, because his father used to govern it, and for some reason that would have made some people vote for the smarmy devil son 40 years later. Too late now! Michigan has no freaking business voting for MCCAIN, the guy who told them in January that their jobs were never coming back. And since Michigan and New Hampshire seemed like the only two possible states to lose from the Kerry coalition, well, enough of that.
Iowa seems safe; Barry’s always winning caucuses and giving speeches there, whereas John McCain has avoided the Iowa caucus entirely for each of his 850 presidential campaigns. New Mexico looks solid too, what with that fat Mexican governor of theirs, whatsisname, the one who always brags about his resume… well anyway, he’s always talking up Barry on the teevee. So then Barry simply has to win Colorado, where he just threw A HUGE SEXY PARTY FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK (and also where one of those Democratic Udalls is coasting to a Senate victory). Then he wins and Sarah Palin goes back to her distant Ice Palace in terrible shame.
Or he could pull off Florida — where the lovely old Jewish folks don’t cotton much to crazy ass Governor Palin — and fuck the rest, because if you’re looking at the Pollster map, 243 + 27 = a happy number.
Or he could win Kerry states + Virginia + Iowa or Nevada or Colorado or like any other random state.
Or he could lose Colorado and instead win Nevada & Montana — where Ron Paul is on the ballot!
And in case you haven’t noticed, all of the above scenarios exclude freaking Ohio. And if you had to make a bet, in a Democratic year, well…
So look you liberal Obamatards, do not worry so much about national polls in Obama’s worst week, after a Republican convention, with a new, as-yet-unquestioned lady face temporarily stealing some attention. The debates are coming soon, anyway.
I love you, anonymous.
Sarah,
I want to take you on first.
On the surface, of course having an electoral college instead of a popular vote seems antiquated. And maybe it is.
But let's get real. There may be one obvious reason to move to your system, but there are also reasons to keep the current system, and I find them compelling.
1a) This country is NOT a Democracy. It is a Republic, and because of that, we elect people to represent us proportionally and to carry out our best interests on the national level. To make this country a Democracy, we would have to change the constitution entirely. Don't be mad at me, call Thomas Jefferson and the other founding fathers.
1b) They usually get it right. Only four times in history has the popular vote loser been the electoral vote victor anyway. They differed from popular vote in 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000. Only one of those circumstances was in 'recent history', so we can't in good faith argue that the system works any more poorly now than it ever did since its founding in 1787.
2) No state you listed as a sponsor of the national popular vote bill is a battleground state. They signed the bill because they want to become relevant, except that each and every one of those states has a clear political leaning anyway. Any Democrat will win Massachusetts, and Republican will win North Carolina. They would do anything to get candidates to waste money in their states.
3) Battleground states are what they are for a reason. Ohio, Michigan, Florida - these are examples of battleground states where candidates exhaust time and money because they represent the middle of America. They represent the balanced interests of the far left and the far right, and they SHOULD help determine a president. Do you really want San Francisco to determine our president? For that matter, do you really want Mobile, Alabama to do it? Of course not. These cities help carry only a certain number of electors, and with good reason- so that special interests and extremists factions can only represent so large a portion of our electors. That's our Republic at work.
4) If you think it's expensive now... Presidential campaigning is one of the most expensive things done in this country. Especially as we move toward public financing of presidential campaigns, we must be mindful of the costs of doing so. Right now, as you rightfully mentioned, the vast majority of money is focused on relatively few 'battleground areas'. What if we also had to dump money in San Francisco and Salt Lake City, and Honolulu and Montpelier. It would be a much deeper boondoggle than it already is to campaign.
5) and perhaps most importantly: We have to work with what we have. Since no angry person will be able to change the rules before November 4th anyway, 270 is the magic number no matter how much we rant and rave. I stick by my predictions, but if you have a problem with them, I suggest you get out on the campaign trail. Don't waste your time in California or Mississippi though, because they won't matter. Try Ohio or Michigan.
Anonymous,
Though you made your point in a roundabout (and possibly high on something) manner, it is still well taken.
Obama does have more scenarios in his favor that would deliver a victory to him. I don't deny that.
My only point is that I don't believe, in the end, that it will pan out for him through any of his avenues.
It doesn't matter WHY McCain wins. 270 is not a made-up threshold, and it doesn't matter how you get there.
You don't have to agree with that assessment to be crying on election day.
Maybe you should reevaluate since Barack Obama seems to be charging ahead in many states, now that the Palin bubble has burst and McCain continues to show is inexperience (and his distance from average Americans) on the economy?
I think it is time for you to revisit this post and publish "Into the Crystal Ball (Part 2)." Considering this post (along with most of the other posts) is largely inaccurate (your doddering candidate and his moron of a running mate is loosing in almost every state mentioned here), you might want to rethink your math and admit that the chances of a McCain/Palin candidacy are fading fast.
Oh, while you are at it, perhaps its time you revisit most of your short sighted posts.
“Talk Versus Action” – McCain’s “suspending” of his campaign was a national joke. Despite your proclaiming McCain’s move was brilliant, he spent 24 hours doing absolutely nothing before returning to Washington, where he phoned a couple senators for the cameras. He headed to the White House for another photo op. Only to see the bill crash and burn in the House (oh, after he released a couple ads saying it passed). Granted, it passed in the Senate, but only Obama had the cajones to get up in front of his fellow Senators.
"Exactly the Right Choice" post comes to mind. Palin is a joke, her favoribility is hugely down. The only reason she is keeping her head at all above water is that she didn't fail miserably on talking points like you cling to the ridiculous thought that McCain would actually make a good president.
“Why I’m a Democrat” Apparently you are really aware of where your candidate stands on the issues. He has moved further and further to the right over the last 8 years. The John McCain that you respected of 2000 is not the John McCain of today. I’m sorry to say but the McCain of yesteryear (circa-2000, not the Keating 5 corrupt McCain) wouldn’t vote for the McCain of today. Each of your points falls into Obama’s column. Especially the “control spending” part. Republicans come into office 8 years ago with a budget surplus and leave it in HUGE debt. Sarah Palin, dont’cha know, came into a town with a surplus and left it with roughly a $20 million dollar debt. Also, if you are trying to argue that McCain would fund public schooling more over Obama, you are seriously delusional, Nick.
“Numbers Don't Lie” Like the “Into the Crystal Ball” post, your numbers were shortsighted and reflect only McCain’s post convention bounce. Revisit this please.
“No I Won’t” Apparently most of the country will, you and your narrow-minded pseudo-Democrats and the religious right are the only ones left voting for McNasty.
“Letter Series: My Letter to John McCain” John McCain’s decision making skills deserve to be showcased and he passes the “Commander in Chief” test. So far, in this cycle, we have seen McCain pick a hugely under qualified running mate for purely political reasons, move to the right on countless issue for votes (some, maverick) and flounder in the face of crisis (suspending, then un-suspending his campaign, doing nothing in between). While it was great that McCain served in the Military and it was unfortunate he was tortured, it can not be argued that he was anything reckless soldier with a mean streak, who was eventually caught in a bad situation.
“Buyer's Remorse” – Obama is up in the polls in almost every battle ground state. Please revisit this post.
“Let them Drill” – It is hugely evident that drilling will provide no benefit to Americans for over ten years. Not one drop of oil will land in an American car for over a decade. If we could get to the Moon in less time in the 1960’s why not spend that time finding an alterative. I think it can be done.
“BHO and JFK: Profiles in Courage?” – Like so many other posts, once voters got to know the real Obama (not the John McCain smeared version) he is winning in almost every battleground state.
“He Just Doesn't Get It” As women realize that Sarah Palin is batshit crazy and supports roughly none of their views, Obama’s poll numbers among women have risen substantially.
We can get to the rest of the posts later.
Thanks.
Anonymous,
AW... you follow my blogs! Well, you quasi-pay attention to them anyway.
Instead of me revisiting the topics, how about you just re-read my posts and take them in context.
I will, however, publish crystal ball part two shortly. The acute and severe effect of the financial crisis in this country has been a game changer, no doubt - and people are reacting.
And, you're welcome.