Special Elections Tilt Toward GOP

In Nevada's 2nd District (#NV02):  Republican Mark Amodei has a huge edge over Democrat rival Kate Marshall, as Republican voters have swamped Democrats in early voting by about 40,000(R) to 25,600(D).  Though the vacant seat was previously held by a Republican and thought to lean toward the GOP, Democrats hoped close polling data and a strong push from the DCCC might foretell a takeover.  Republicans pushed back with a series of ads targeting Marshall's record as a liberal legislator and Obama parrot, and voters responded strongly.  According to Fox News, "The seat was created following the 1980 census and has never left Republican hands." This race should be an easy victory for the GOP.

In New York's 9th District (#NY09):  A far more interesting race has taken shape to replace disgraced Representative Anthony Weiner.  The Brooklyn/Queens district has a Cook PVI index of D+4, which is to suggest Democrats are rightfully appalled that they would have to battle for this seat at all.  This race is also seen as a referendum on President Obama's handling of the economy, his policies toward Israel, and his economic agenda.  Fmr. NYC Mayor Ed Koch, a Democrat, has come out in strong support for Republican candidate Bob Turner and urged Jewish Democratic voters to send the president a message by flipping the unlikely seat toward the GOP.  The NY Daily News also endorsed the Republican, and National Review recently pondered if Turner would become "A Scott Brown in Queens."