The One Term Trap

by Nick Stone of Drawnlines Politics: 

You've heard it before.  Obama is like Jimmy Carter, and probably doomed to just one term in office.

Liberal commentator Ruth Marcus ran a great column this week on the state of our politics.  She was notably cloudy on Mr. Obama and sunny on Mitt Romney.  She focused on "switchers", or voters that supported President Obama in 2008, then switched to support Republicans in the 2010 midterms.  According to recent polling, Marcus notes that 6 in 10 are up for grabs next year.  These voters are frustrated with Washington and tend to blame both parties to some degree.

According to the article, "These voters tend to like Mr. Obama.  They think he's smart and sincere.  They give him credit for trying.  But the next two words encapsulate their twin doubts: that he is too liberal and not effective enough for the country's needs."  In other words, he's Jimmy Carter.  Remember what happened to him?

The weak economy is of course President Obama's number one roadblock as he urges voters for another four years on the job.  Though many still "Blame Bush" for the economic collapse, they have become impatient with the current President, whom they hired to fix it.  For Obama, this problem is dire.  Marcus notes, "Even if Congress were to magically pass Mr. Obama's plan swiftly and in full, the jobs turnaround is apt to be slow and far from assured." 

I would go further than that.  If the economy began robust growth, it could take a year or more for Americans to feel secure again.  First, companies have to improve their sales and balance sheets.  As they expand, they will hire.  Those new employees will then begin to dig themselves out of huge financial holes.  It could easily be too late for the President, even if that robust economic growth began tomorrow.  As the economy rebounded in 1992, George Bush found himself losing a race against the clock.  Americans had not yet felt the recovery by Election Day and Bush served just one term.

Frustrated as the American people have become with their President, they still want to like Mr. Obama.  This puts the Republicans in a precarious position as they posture for 2012.  On one hand, the Republican nominee must lay out a stark contrast between President Obama's America and their plan for a different path.  On the other hand, shrill or ad hominem attacks could backfire as Americans tune out the conservative message.

This is where Ms. Marcus notes that Mitt Romney, "casting [Obama] as a nice guy in over his head," perfectly threads the needle.  "He's not telling swing voters they were wrong to give Mr. Obama a shot - just that the president tried and failed."  With a clear plan and positive message, switchers could be wooed away.  If Republicans want to stick President Obama with the same fate as Bush and Carter, they would do well to follow Romney's lead.