7 Ways to Win PA
Letter Series, mccain 1:03 AM
In spite of the odds and the metrics standing against him, John McCain is pushing as hard as ever for a win in Blue State Pennsylvania. Many Pennsylvania insiders on both sides agree that the 11.4 RCP deficit he is working against is overblown, but still the records show this is a huge uphill battle. President Bush lost the state 51/48 to Kerry despite a massive ground game. Now, over the next two weeks, McCain must find a way to turn the tide.
If he's going to do it, I strongly feel this is what he HAS TO do to get through to keystone voters:
Senator McCain,
Now that your campaign finds itself backed into the corner, we both know that it's going to come down to whether or not you can - in addition to holding on to the vast majority of the Bush swing states - turn Pennsylvania around.
This will be no small task, as you well know. I'm not usually in the business of offering up free advice to political candidates, and I'm a Democrat anyway. But this election is so important - and the imperitive that Barack Obama not win this election so urgent - that I'm obligated to give with you some insight. If any of it helps at all, you're welcome. If not, I'm truly sorry. Please win anyway. I'll send money.
I've arranged my urgent advice to you into a few basic points, in no particular order. They are as follows:
1) Spend more time there. Spend LOTS more time there. Every other day, you or Governor Palin needs to be in Pennsylvania. No, I'm not kidding. You can't spend as much money as Barack has to spend, but you can beat the amount of face time he gives. He's spread thin by trying to visit red states that will end up coming home to you anyway. Use that to your advantage and get up close and personal with the voters there. No more trips to Wisconsin for you. And bring your friends if at all possible! Where the heck has Lieberman been? Where's Tom Ridge? Got some generals and admirals up your sleeve? Bring them too!
2) Turn Obama's advantages into disadvantages. Obama has a ton of money because he backed out of public campaign financing. He broke his word in an attempt to buy this election, and it just might work. People don't like being taken for fools, especially not the people of Pennsylvania. At your rallies, explain to them that you came personally to talk with them, while Senator Obama would rather attack them through their television sets and talk at them. Also, he's opening up campaign offices like crazy to enlist an army of footsoldiers to go twist people's arms. If that sounds familiar, it's because that's classic old-school Chicago style politics. Pennsylvanians won't care for that.
3) Don't give up the ad war in Philadelphia. You'll never win in Philly obviously, but you need to stay in the faces of voters in the city and suburbs. Kerry won Phildelphia County by 412,000 votes. Obama will never get that - unless you concede the area. He didn't get the margin he was hoping for in the primaries, and he won't now. Likewise, Clinton beat him in Montgomery County and mopped the floor with him in Bucks County. Both of these are in the Philly media market, and you desperately need them in your column. People in this part of the state aren't as conservative as other parts of the state - so play up the sensible solutions thing - and throw in the maverick thing a few times for good measure. No pictures of dead fetuses or gays holding hands.
4) Forget the "T" strategy. You simply don't have the ground game that Bush had in 2004, and he lost the state anyway. You will win this region, but will likely not enjoy the turnout he did. Focus instead on Western - especially Southwestern PA. If you don't tie it up in Allegheney County, it's over. Drop some money and as much time as possible in and around Pittsburgh. But forget about TV ads here. Spend it on street crews, signs, and rallies. Get as much free press as possible. You're gonna need it. Obama didn't win a single county in Western PA in the primaries. Racism aside, this is the part of the state most skeptical of him. Hit him hard. There are plenty of votes here to tap.
5) Keep your message on contrast. Don't attack his personality. Instead, draw clear, specific contrasts between the two of you. For everything negative you say about him, you'd better offer something positive about yourself. If you're going to talk about Obama increasing taxes on small businesses, remind them EXACTLY how much an average small business makes in Pittsburgh. Then tell them how much money you'd like to save them a year, and how many employees' salaries would be affected. He wants to raise taxes on "big corporations"? Ask the people who used to work for US Steel about that. Ask the people who used to work for US Airways about that. Ask the people who used to work in coal mines about that.
6) Remind people of Hillary Clinton as much as humanly possible. I know that advice sounds silly, but hear me out: She won over Pennsylvania because she was one of them, and because she offered specifics - not because she is white. Tell people exactly what you want to do for them and offer simple, specific answers to tough questions. You come from humble beginnings and made something of yourself by working hard and striving to be a better person. Remind people of that, and tell them that you want them to be rewarded for doing the same.
7) And maybe most importantly, don't shy away from the underdog theme. Shake every hand possible, look them in the eye and tell them in no uncertain terms that you need them to come to the polls for you so that you can fight for them. Let them know that if they bring their friends and family to the polls on election day, you will win. And above all else, make sure they know that a vote for you is a vote for them. You're in the land of Rocky. Whatever you do, keep getting off the mat. The people have saved you before, and your fate is in their hands once more.
Good luck, Senator. You're going to need it, and I'm counting on you.
Sincerely,
Nick Stone
Voter, FL-20
If he's going to do it, I strongly feel this is what he HAS TO do to get through to keystone voters:
Senator McCain,
Now that your campaign finds itself backed into the corner, we both know that it's going to come down to whether or not you can - in addition to holding on to the vast majority of the Bush swing states - turn Pennsylvania around.
This will be no small task, as you well know. I'm not usually in the business of offering up free advice to political candidates, and I'm a Democrat anyway. But this election is so important - and the imperitive that Barack Obama not win this election so urgent - that I'm obligated to give with you some insight. If any of it helps at all, you're welcome. If not, I'm truly sorry. Please win anyway. I'll send money.
I've arranged my urgent advice to you into a few basic points, in no particular order. They are as follows:
1) Spend more time there. Spend LOTS more time there. Every other day, you or Governor Palin needs to be in Pennsylvania. No, I'm not kidding. You can't spend as much money as Barack has to spend, but you can beat the amount of face time he gives. He's spread thin by trying to visit red states that will end up coming home to you anyway. Use that to your advantage and get up close and personal with the voters there. No more trips to Wisconsin for you. And bring your friends if at all possible! Where the heck has Lieberman been? Where's Tom Ridge? Got some generals and admirals up your sleeve? Bring them too!
2) Turn Obama's advantages into disadvantages. Obama has a ton of money because he backed out of public campaign financing. He broke his word in an attempt to buy this election, and it just might work. People don't like being taken for fools, especially not the people of Pennsylvania. At your rallies, explain to them that you came personally to talk with them, while Senator Obama would rather attack them through their television sets and talk at them. Also, he's opening up campaign offices like crazy to enlist an army of footsoldiers to go twist people's arms. If that sounds familiar, it's because that's classic old-school Chicago style politics. Pennsylvanians won't care for that.
3) Don't give up the ad war in Philadelphia. You'll never win in Philly obviously, but you need to stay in the faces of voters in the city and suburbs. Kerry won Phildelphia County by 412,000 votes. Obama will never get that - unless you concede the area. He didn't get the margin he was hoping for in the primaries, and he won't now. Likewise, Clinton beat him in Montgomery County and mopped the floor with him in Bucks County. Both of these are in the Philly media market, and you desperately need them in your column. People in this part of the state aren't as conservative as other parts of the state - so play up the sensible solutions thing - and throw in the maverick thing a few times for good measure. No pictures of dead fetuses or gays holding hands.
4) Forget the "T" strategy. You simply don't have the ground game that Bush had in 2004, and he lost the state anyway. You will win this region, but will likely not enjoy the turnout he did. Focus instead on Western - especially Southwestern PA. If you don't tie it up in Allegheney County, it's over. Drop some money and as much time as possible in and around Pittsburgh. But forget about TV ads here. Spend it on street crews, signs, and rallies. Get as much free press as possible. You're gonna need it. Obama didn't win a single county in Western PA in the primaries. Racism aside, this is the part of the state most skeptical of him. Hit him hard. There are plenty of votes here to tap.
5) Keep your message on contrast. Don't attack his personality. Instead, draw clear, specific contrasts between the two of you. For everything negative you say about him, you'd better offer something positive about yourself. If you're going to talk about Obama increasing taxes on small businesses, remind them EXACTLY how much an average small business makes in Pittsburgh. Then tell them how much money you'd like to save them a year, and how many employees' salaries would be affected. He wants to raise taxes on "big corporations"? Ask the people who used to work for US Steel about that. Ask the people who used to work for US Airways about that. Ask the people who used to work in coal mines about that.
6) Remind people of Hillary Clinton as much as humanly possible. I know that advice sounds silly, but hear me out: She won over Pennsylvania because she was one of them, and because she offered specifics - not because she is white. Tell people exactly what you want to do for them and offer simple, specific answers to tough questions. You come from humble beginnings and made something of yourself by working hard and striving to be a better person. Remind people of that, and tell them that you want them to be rewarded for doing the same.
7) And maybe most importantly, don't shy away from the underdog theme. Shake every hand possible, look them in the eye and tell them in no uncertain terms that you need them to come to the polls for you so that you can fight for them. Let them know that if they bring their friends and family to the polls on election day, you will win. And above all else, make sure they know that a vote for you is a vote for them. You're in the land of Rocky. Whatever you do, keep getting off the mat. The people have saved you before, and your fate is in their hands once more.
Good luck, Senator. You're going to need it, and I'm counting on you.
Sincerely,
Nick Stone
Voter, FL-20
Posted by Nick Stone
on 1:03 AM.
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Posts
1. McCain can't afford to spend "LOTS" of time there. He's too busy defending himself in red states like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico. Now even Georgia and Montana (!).
Also, Palin can't spend time in PA-- she's too busy campaigning in Saks and Neiman Marcus.
2. Obama has a ton of money because a ton of people have donated. And they aren't large sums. Most of Obama's donations are in sums of $100 or less.
Also, people are too busy losing their own money to care about where Obama and McCain are getting their own money from.
Obama 'twists people's arms?" Oh, you mean like robocalling? Wait, wrong candidate...
5. Well, now you're just being naive. McCain hasn't kept on message in weeks. All he does is attack Obama's character-- socialist, terrorist, etc. It's a little late to expect a change from him; personal attacks are all he sadly has left.
But I hope he does talk to workers of US Steel, US Airways, and coal mines--- because they will all benefit under Obama's tax breaks (just like Joe the Plumber would).
6. Please do remind people of Hillary Clinton, and how much they liked her. Then they can listen to Hillary campaigning for Obama, and vote for Obama. Like you should have.
7. "look them in the eye?" Oh, please! McCain hasn't looked anyone in the eye all campaign long. He didn't even look Palin in the eye at their joint interview last night.
Obama is the one looking the American people in the eye and speaking to their hearts and hopes. McCain looks at the dark, fear-filled parts of the American people, and then exploits that fear and hatred. And that's why he's losing.
8. Did you forget Joe Biden? The "Scrappy Kid from Scranton?" Pennsylvania loves him.
More likely than not, you're right and this battle is lost. But that doesn't mean he should go down without a fight, does it?
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin -- What if things were switched around?..... Would the country's collective point of view be different?
What if the Obamas had five children, including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review? And what if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?
What if Obama left his first wife after a severe disfiguring car accident for a woman he met in a bar, who he had a long affair with while he was still married.
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?
(The Keating Five were five United States Senators accused of corruption in 1989, igniting a major political scandal as part of the larger Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s.)
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included discipline problems and a record of crashing three planes?
What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many occasions, a serious anger management problem?
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer distribution?
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in another when there is a color difference.
Educational Background:
Barack Obama: Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in International Relations. Havard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
Joseph Biden: University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science. Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.
John McCain: United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899
Sarah Palin: Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism
Of course, education isn't everything, but this is about the two highest offices in the land as well as our standing in the world.
to respond to your comment, Nick, you're right--- McCain shouldn't go down without a fight.
But the fight should be respectful and about the issues. It should not be a fight about Obama's character and patriotism.
McCain is going to lose a reputation he's built over 26 years as a Senator. I personally think that's unfair, but that's the "fight" that McCain's side is engaged in.
After this election is over, how is the new generation going to remember McCain?
As a formerly respected man who abandoned his principles in order to win an election at all costs?
The NY Times makes a good point in their Obama endorsement:
"Mr. McCain, whom we chose as the best Republican nominee in the primaries, has spent the last coins of his reputation for principle and sound judgment to placate the limitless demands and narrow vision of the far-right wing. His righteous fury at being driven out of the 2000 primaries on a racist tide aimed at his adopted daughter has been replaced by a zealous embrace of those same win-at-all-costs tactics and tacticians.
He surrendered his standing as an independent thinker in his rush to embrace Mr. Bush’s misbegotten tax policies and to abandon his leadership position on climate change and immigration reform.
Mr. McCain could have seized the high ground on energy and the environment. Earlier in his career, he offered the first plausible bill to control America’s emissions of greenhouse gases. Now his positions are a caricature of that record: think Ms. Palin leading chants of “drill, baby, drill.
The nation’s problems are simply too grave to be reduced to slashing “robo-calls” and negative ads. This country needs sensible leadership, compassionate leadership, honest leadership and strong leadership. Barack Obama has shown that he has all of those qualities."
Anonymous #1,
I want to be crystal clear on this point: There is EXACTLY one candidate in this race that is making race an issue.
That candidate is Barack Obama.
Barack got out in front and told people to expect the Republicans to say things like, "He doesn't look like us, like past presidents, etc."
What he did - and his campaign is genious for doing so - is to accuse the "other side" of being racists before they ever had the chance to say anything racist about him whatsoever. The Republicans - whatever you may think of them - HAVE NOT used race against BHO in this election. Period. Worse, they've been demonized for doing so without reaping any of the benefits they could have by going negative on race.
So, while I completely agree that race is a factor in voters' minds, and I COMPLETELY agree that this campaign has been negative on both sides, I refuse to concede any implication or premise that McCain is leading a racially divisive campaign. Period.
Also, if we're going to talk about racism among voters, consider this:
95% of black voters are going to vote for Barack Obama. Something along the lines of 55-60% of whites will go for McCain. You tell me which group (in general) is voting based on race?! YOU TELL ME.
Anonymous #2,
I actually really appreciate your comment. And I mean that sincerely. It made me think and gather my thoughts, and question my own beliefs, and that's exactly what realpoliticking is about.
There's no doubt that going negative in any way can damage the message sender's image as much as the guy they are attacking. Two unfortunate realities about negative campaigning are that: 1) It's necessary because no candidate is going to volunteer their own skeletons from their closets, and 2) it works. Everybody says they hate negative campaigning, but every study will tell you that it does in fact change people's minds in the ballot box.
In my 7 point plan for Senator McCain (and believe me I'm not kidding myself that he's actually going to read my message let alone utilize my urgent pleas to his advantage), I only talked about Senator Obama on two points. I specifically urged him NOT to make this about personality but rather about substance, and I think that goes to the heart of what you meant.
But he does have to draw clear distinctions. They can disagree on policy and not demonize each other for disagreeing. One of the most frustrating things I encounter daily is a mentality that people either have to be stupid, crazy, or racist to vote for McCain - or rather, to vote AGAINST Obama. Well, I personally am offended by that. I agonized for months about which candidate to get behind and had plenty of reasons to get behind both. But in the end, I used my judgment and got behind John.
Incidentally, I think John has done a good job about not using divisiveness where it would benefit him politically. The example I like to cite is this: I'm a gay man in a swing state. In my state of Florida, though we have a decent gay population, McCain would pick up two votes for every one he lost if he decided to campaign on the marriage issue. To be sure, he is a conservative and when asked he'll tell you he doesn't agree with gays marrying, but he also hasn't marginalized me like previous candidates have. I give him enormous credit for not going down that path.
Win or lose, I know I'm on the right side of this fight. I absolutely 100 percent agree though that I'd rather see John lose a campaign of substance than win a campaign of deceptiveness or playing to our worst angels.
But then, always remember, the spin room (the media) are blatantly cheerleading for Obama at a level that is both unprecedented an unbecoming. It's very hard to run against that.